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‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling

Mathematical modelling has been a helpful resource for planning public health responses to COVID-19. However, there is a need to improve the accessibility of models built within country contexts in the Global South. Immediately following the overwhelming ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 in India, we develo...

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Autores principales: Mandal, Sandip, Parchani, Kanchan, Arinaminpathy, Nimalan, Sarkar, Swarup, Bhargava, Balram, Panda, Samiran
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9096499/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35545289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008710
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author Mandal, Sandip
Parchani, Kanchan
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Sarkar, Swarup
Bhargava, Balram
Panda, Samiran
author_facet Mandal, Sandip
Parchani, Kanchan
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Sarkar, Swarup
Bhargava, Balram
Panda, Samiran
author_sort Mandal, Sandip
collection PubMed
description Mathematical modelling has been a helpful resource for planning public health responses to COVID-19. However, there is a need to improve the accessibility of models built within country contexts in the Global South. Immediately following the overwhelming ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 in India, we developed a user-friendly, web-based modelling simulator in partnership with the public health experts and health administrators for subnational planning. The purpose was to help policy-makers and programme officials at the state and district levels, to construct model-based scenarios for a possible third wave. Here, we describe our experiences of developing and deploying the simulator and propose the following recommendations for future such initiatives: early preparation will be the key for pandemic management planning, including establishment of networks with potential simulator users. Ideally, this preparedness should be conducted during ‘peace time’, and coordinated by agencies such as WHO. Second, flexible modelling frameworks will be needed, to respond rapidly to future emergencies as the precise nature of any pandemic is impossible to predict. Modelling resources will, therefore, need to be rapidly adaptable to respond as soon as a novel pathogen emerges. Third, limitations of modelling must be communicated clearly and consistently to end users. Finally, systematic mechanisms are required for monitoring the use of models in decision making, which will help in providing modelling support to those local authorities who may benefit most from it. Overall, these lessons from India can be relevant for other countries in the South-Asian-Region, to incorporate modelling resources into their pandemic preparedness planning.
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spelling pubmed-90964992022-05-27 ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling Mandal, Sandip Parchani, Kanchan Arinaminpathy, Nimalan Sarkar, Swarup Bhargava, Balram Panda, Samiran BMJ Glob Health Practice Mathematical modelling has been a helpful resource for planning public health responses to COVID-19. However, there is a need to improve the accessibility of models built within country contexts in the Global South. Immediately following the overwhelming ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 in India, we developed a user-friendly, web-based modelling simulator in partnership with the public health experts and health administrators for subnational planning. The purpose was to help policy-makers and programme officials at the state and district levels, to construct model-based scenarios for a possible third wave. Here, we describe our experiences of developing and deploying the simulator and propose the following recommendations for future such initiatives: early preparation will be the key for pandemic management planning, including establishment of networks with potential simulator users. Ideally, this preparedness should be conducted during ‘peace time’, and coordinated by agencies such as WHO. Second, flexible modelling frameworks will be needed, to respond rapidly to future emergencies as the precise nature of any pandemic is impossible to predict. Modelling resources will, therefore, need to be rapidly adaptable to respond as soon as a novel pathogen emerges. Third, limitations of modelling must be communicated clearly and consistently to end users. Finally, systematic mechanisms are required for monitoring the use of models in decision making, which will help in providing modelling support to those local authorities who may benefit most from it. Overall, these lessons from India can be relevant for other countries in the South-Asian-Region, to incorporate modelling resources into their pandemic preparedness planning. BMJ Publishing Group 2022-05-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9096499/ /pubmed/35545289 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008710 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Practice
Mandal, Sandip
Parchani, Kanchan
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Sarkar, Swarup
Bhargava, Balram
Panda, Samiran
‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title_full ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title_fullStr ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title_full_unstemmed ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title_short ‘Imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
title_sort ‘imperfect but useful’: pandemic response in the global south can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling
topic Practice
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9096499/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35545289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008710
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