Reconstruction of Nuclear Ensemble Approach Electronic Spectra Using Probabilistic Machine Learning

[Image: see text] The theoretical prediction of molecular electronic spectra by means of quantum mechanical (QM) computations is fundamental to gain a deep insight into many photophysical and photochemical processes. A computational strategy that is attracting significant attention is the so-called Nuclear Ensemble Approach (NEA), that relies on generating a representative ensemble of nuclear geometries around the equilibrium structure and computing the vertical excitation energies (ΔE) and oscillator strengths (f) and phenomenologically broadening each transition with a line-shaped function with empirical full-width δ. Frequently, the choice of δ is carried out by visually finding the trade-off between artificial vibronic features (small δ) and over-smoothing of electronic signatures (large δ). Nevertheless, this approach is not satisfactory, as it relies on a subjective perception and may lead to spectral inaccuracies overall when the number of sampled configurations is limited due to an excessive computational burden (high-level QM methods, complex systems, solvent effects, etc.). In this work, we have developed and tested a new approach to reconstruct NEA spectra, dubbed GMM-NEA, based on the use of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), a probabilistic machine learning algorithm, that circumvents the phenomenological broadening assumption and, in turn, the use of δ altogether. We show that GMM-NEA systematically outperforms other data-driven models to automatically select δ overall for small datasets. In addition, we report the use of an algorithm to detect anomalous QM computations (outliers) that can affect the overall shape and uncertainty of the NEA spectra. Finally, we apply GMM-NEA to predict the photolysis rate for HgBrOOH, a compound involved in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry.