A Nomogram to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival Following Surgery for Vestibular Schwannoma

BACKGROUND: Vestibular schwannoma (VS) is the most common benign tumor of the posterior fossa. The recurrence of VS has always received widespread attention. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict Recurrence-free survival (RFS) following resection of VS. METHODS: A total of 425 patients with VS who underwent resection at the Department of Neurosurgery in Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 2014 and December 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. The medical records and follow-up data were collected. Cox regression analysis was used to screen prognostic factors and construct the nomogram. The predictive accuracy and clinical benefits of the nomogram were validated using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The Cox regression analysis revealed that age (HR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.94 - 0.99; p < 0.01), EOR (HR = 4.65; 95% CI 2.22 - 9.74; p < 0.001), and Ki-67 (HR = 1.16; 95% CI 1.09 - 1.23; p < 0.001) were all significantly correlated with recurrence, and they were finally included in the nomogram model. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.86. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the nomogram model of 3-, 4- and 5-year were 0.912, 0.865, and 0.809, respectively. A well-fitted calibration curve was also generated for the nomogram model. The DCA curves also indicated that the nomogram model had satisfactory clinical utility compared to the single indicators. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram that has high accuracy in predicting RFS in patients after resection of VS. All of the included prognostic factors are easy to obtain. The nomogram can improve the postoperative management of patients and assist clinicians in individualized clinical treatment. Furthermore, we generated a web-based calculator to facilitate clinical application: https://abc123-123.shinyapps.io/VS-RFS/.