Prognostic value of upper respiratory tract microbes in children presenting to primary care with respiratory infections: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The association between upper respiratory tract microbial positivity and illness prognosis in children is unclear. This impedes clinical decision-making and means the utility of upper respiratory tract microbial point-of-care tests remains unknown. We investigated for relationships between pharyngeal microbes and symptom severity in children with suspected respiratory tract infection (RTI). METHODS: Baseline characteristics and pharyngeal swabs were collected from 2,296 children presenting to 58 general practices in Bristol, UK with acute cough and suspected RTI between 2011–2013. Post-consultation, parents recorded the severity of six RTI symptoms on a 0–6 scale daily for ≤28 days. We used multivariable hurdle regression, adjusting for clinical characteristics, antibiotics and other microbes, to investigate associations between respiratory microbes and mean symptom severity on days 2–4 post-presentation. RESULTS: Overall, 1,317 (57%) children with complete baseline, microbiological and symptom data were included. Baseline characteristics were similar in included participants and those lacking microbiological data. At least one virus was detected in 869 (66%) children, and at least one bacterium in 783 (60%). Compared to children with no virus detected (mean symptom severity score 1.52), adjusted mean symptom severity was 0.26 points higher in those testing positive for at least one virus (95% CI 0.15 to 0.38, p<0.001); and was also higher in those with detected Influenza B (0.44, 0.15 to 0.72, p = 0.003); RSV (0.41, 0.20 to 0.60, p<0.001); and Influenza A (0.25, -0.01 to 0.51, p = 0.059). Children positive for Enterovirus had a lower adjusted mean symptom severity (-0.24, -0.43 to -0.05, p = 0.013). Children with detected Bordetella pertussis (0.40, 0.00 to 0.79, p = 0.049) and those with detected Moraxella catarrhalis (-0.76, -1.06 to -0.45, p<0.001) respectively had higher and lower mean symptom severity compared to children without these bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential role for upper respiratory tract microbiological point-of-care tests in determining the prognosis of childhood RTIs.