Data-Driven Parameter Selection and Modeling for Concrete Carbonation

Concrete carbonation is known as a stochastic process. Its uncertainties mainly result from parameters that are not considered in prediction models. Parameter selection, therefore, is important. In this paper, based on 8204 sets of data, statistical methods and machine learning techniques were applied to choose appropriate influence factors in terms of three aspects: (1) the correlation between factors and concrete carbonation; (2) factors’ influence on the uncertainties of carbonation depth; and (3) the correlation between factors. Both single parameters and parameter groups were evaluated quantitatively. The results showed that compressive strength had the highest correlation with carbonation depth and that using the aggregate–cement ratio as the parameter significantly reduced the dispersion of carbonation depth to a low level. Machine learning models manifested that selected parameter groups had a large potential in improving the performance of models with fewer parameters. This paper also developed machine learning carbonation models and simplified them to propose a practical model. The results showed that this concise model had a high accuracy on both accelerated and natural carbonation test datasets. For natural carbonation datasets, the mean absolute error of the practical model was 1.56 mm.