A Nomogram Model for Evaluating the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in cT2-cT4N0M0 Gastric Cancer Population

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is an important treatment for advanced gastric cancer, but it has been unclear whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy is closely related to lymph node metastasis. Therefore, based on the disease characteristics of the cT2-cT4N0M0 gastric cancer population, this study established a nomogram prediction model of lymph node metastasis risk in this gastric cancer population to help clinicians optimize clinical decision-making. MATERIAL/METHODS: We analyzed the data of 336 patients with advanced gastric cancer with CT imaging stage of cT2-cT4N0M0 admitted to the Third Department of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from 2015 to 2021. Combined with the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, 7 indicators were selected to establish a nomogram prediction model. The calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curves were drawn against the nomogram model using R language. RESULTS: The results showed that the AUC value of the model and the external validation data set were 0.925 and 0.911, respectively. The P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the internal validation dataset was 0.082, and the P value of Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the external validation dataset was 0.076.The decision curve results showed that when the threshold probability was 0.1–0.9, this model could benefit patients by predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in patients with advanced gastric cancer, and formulating appropriate treatment schemes accordingly. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram has shown good discrimination and fit, and can also be combined with imaging examination to screen the populations suitable for neoadjuvant chemotherapy, avoid the risk of misdiagnosis of N staging to the greatest extent, and to assist clinicians to optimize clinical decision-making.