Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproductio...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Sun, Chang, Richard, Serge, Miyoshi, Takemasa, Tsuzu, Naohiro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9103055/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35566527
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11092401
_version_ 1784707471987703808
author Sun, Chang
Richard, Serge
Miyoshi, Takemasa
Tsuzu, Naohiro
author_facet Sun, Chang
Richard, Serge
Miyoshi, Takemasa
Tsuzu, Naohiro
author_sort Sun, Chang
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcomes of our approach. Other unknown parameters are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, such as, for example, the probability that an infected agent develops symptoms, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9103055
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-91030552022-05-14 Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation Sun, Chang Richard, Serge Miyoshi, Takemasa Tsuzu, Naohiro J Clin Med Article In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcomes of our approach. Other unknown parameters are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, such as, for example, the probability that an infected agent develops symptoms, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process. MDPI 2022-04-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9103055/ /pubmed/35566527 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11092401 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Sun, Chang
Richard, Serge
Miyoshi, Takemasa
Tsuzu, Naohiro
Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title_full Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title_fullStr Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title_short Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation
title_sort analysis of covid-19 spread in tokyo through an agent-based model with data assimilation
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9103055/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35566527
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11092401
work_keys_str_mv AT sunchang analysisofcovid19spreadintokyothroughanagentbasedmodelwithdataassimilation
AT richardserge analysisofcovid19spreadintokyothroughanagentbasedmodelwithdataassimilation
AT miyoshitakemasa analysisofcovid19spreadintokyothroughanagentbasedmodelwithdataassimilation
AT tsuzunaohiro analysisofcovid19spreadintokyothroughanagentbasedmodelwithdataassimilation

Ejemplares similares