Examining the Impact of Regional Development Policy on Industrial Structure Upgrading: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from China

“Guiding Opinions on Relying on the Golden Waterway to Promote the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB)”, the “YREB Development Policy”, is a national Chinese policy aiming to promote industrial structure upgrading and high-quality development in the YREB. To test the effects of this policy, we used 2009–2019 data from 283 cities to examine whether its implementation promoted regional industrial structure upgrading. The YREB Development Policy positively impacted industrial structure advancement but scarcely benefited industrial structure rationalization. Moreover, the impacts indicated a temporary, unsustainable influence on industrial structure advancement, presenting a clear U-shaped development trend. The YREB Development Policy can more significantly improve industrial structure upgrading in cities with large populations. The effects of this policy on industrial structure upgrading in the middle and lower reaches of the YREB are almost five times that in the upper reaches. In addition, the policy more greatly impacts the tertiary industry than the primary and secondary industries, especially in the lower reaches. These findings have policy-making implications, enrich the research regarding the YREB Development Policy impacts on industrial structure upgrading, and provide an empirical reference to improve subsequent policies.