Clinical severity prediction in children with osteogenesis imperfecta caused by COL1A1/2 defects

SUMMARY: Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disease with an estimated prevalence of 1 in 13,500 and 1 in 9700. The classification into subtypes of OI is important for prognosis and management. In this study, we established a clinical severity prediction model depending on multiple features of variants in COL1A1/2 genes. INTRODUCTION: Ninety percent of OI cases are caused by pathogenic variants in the COL1A1/COL1A2 gene. The Sillence classification describes four OI types with variable clinical features ranging from mild symptoms to lethal and progressively deforming symptoms. METHODS: We established a prediction model of the clinical severity of OI based on the random forest model with a training set obtained from the Human Gene Mutation Database, including 790 records of the COL1A1/COL1A2 genes. The features used in the prediction model were respectively based on variant-type features only, and the optimized features. RESULTS: With the training set, the prediction results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting lethal to severe OI or mild/moderate OI was 0.767 and 0.902, respectively, when using variant-type features only and optimized features for COL1A1 defects, 0.545 and 0.731, respectively, for COL1A2 defects. For the 17 patients from our hospital, prediction accuracy for the patient with the COL1A1 and COL1A2 defects was 76.5% (95% CI: 50.1–93.2%) and 88.2% (95% CI: 63.6–98.5%), respectively. CONCLUSION: We established an OI severity prediction model depending on multiple features of the specific variants in COL1A1/2 genes, with a prediction accuracy of 76–88%. This prediction algorithm is a promising alternative that could prove to be valuable in clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00198-021-06263-0.