The progression rate of spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 varies with disease stage

BACKGROUND: In polyglutamine (polyQ) diseases, the identification of modifiers and the construction of prediction model for progression facilitate genetic counseling, clinical management and therapeutic interventions. METHODS: Data were derived from the longest longitudinal study, with 642 examinations by International Cooperative Ataxia Rating Scale (ICARS) from 82 SCA3 participants. Using different time scales of disease duration, we performed multiple different linear, quadratic and piece-wise linear growth models to fit the relationship between ICARS scores and duration. Models comparison was employed to determine the best-fitting model according to goodness-of-fit tests, and the analysis of variance among nested models. RESULTS: An acceleration was detected after 13 years of duration: ICARS scores progressed 2.445 (SE: 0.185) points/year before and 3.547 (SE: 0.312) points/year after this deadline. Piece-wise growth model fitted better to studied data than other two types of models. The length of expanded CAG repeat (CAGexp) in ATXN3 gene significantly influenced progression. Age at onset of gait ataxia (AOga), a proxy for aging process, was not an independent modifier but affected the correlation between CAGexp and progression. Additionally, gender had no significant effect on progression rate of ICARS. The piece-wise growth models were determined as the predictive models, and ICARS predictions from related models were available. CONCLUSIONS: We first confirmed that ICARS progressed as a nonlinear pattern and varied according to different stages in SCA3. In addition to ATXN3 CAGexp, AOga or aging process regulated the progression by interacting with CAGexp. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03428-1.