Recent change in spatial distribution of the European flat oyster (Ostrea edulis) inferred from field data and empirical models of living oysters and empty shells

Marine coastal areas are increasingly affected by human activities resulting in changes in species and habitat distributions. Understanding these patterns and its causes and consequences is important for conservation and restoration of such changing habitats. One habitat that has been heavily affected by human use are the North Sea oyster beds which once were abundant but have lost large parts of its coastal distribution due to overexploitation. Based on data of living and dead assemblages of Ostrea edulis collected using video transects, we used an ensemble modeling technique to model and predict current and recent distribution of O. edulis along the Swedish west coast where its distribution is, in relative terms, still rather unaffected. We could detect a recent change in the distribution of O. edulis along the coast which to a large extent could be attributed to a change in depth distribution, suggesting that the population of O. edulis have a slightly shallower distribution today than in the past. Although a potential mismatch between living and dead assemblages, caused by a complex combination of biological and environmental conditions, needs to be considered in the interpretations drawn, it may be a way around the lack of suitable background data in management decisions. This provides important information for management and conservation of the native oyster beds. Furthermore, this study illustrates a method for identifying recent changes in species distribution using dead assemblages of bivalves.