Exploring the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage under different development scenarios in Jiangsu Province, China

Carbon storage (CS) is closely linked to the global challenge of climate change. Land use/cover (LULC) change is the main factor driving changes in CS, and evaluating the impact of LULC changes on CS is important for carbon balance. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in CS during 2000–2015. Then we coupled it with the patch-generating land use simulation model to simulate and predict LULC and CS in 2050 under four different development plans. The results showed that LULC change in Jiangsu Province was manifested mainly as transformation of cropland to construction land (3,485 km(2)) and cropland to water body (470 km(2)). The high value area for CS was concentrated mainly in forest land, water body and grassland, whereas the low value area was concentrated mainly in construction land. During 2000–2015, CS decreased by 0.23 Tg, and during 2015–2050, CS was predicted to decrease by 0.16, 1.69, 0.02, and 0.10 Tg under the baseline, fast, slow and harmonious development scenarios. The conversion of a large amount of cropland to construction land was the main cause of CS loss. In all scenarios, the carbon loss was the largest in southern Jiangsu and lowest in central Jiangsu. It is necessary to balance the conflict between economic development and ecological protection during the process of urbanization. This study can provide an important reference for decision makers during the formulation of regional development models and ecological management strategies.