A Novel Risk Score (P-score) Based on a Three-Gene Signature, for Estimating the Risk of Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a risk score (P-score) algorithm which includes previously described three-gene signature and clinicopathological parameters to predict the risk of death from prostate cancer (PCa) in a retrospective cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 591 PCa patients diagnosed between 2003 and 2008 in Stockholm, Sweden, with a median clinical follow-up time of 7.6 years (1–11 years) were included in this study. Expression of a three-gene signature (IGFBP3, F3, VGLL3) was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded material from diagnostic core needle biopsies (CNB) of these patients. A point-based scoring system based on a Fine-Gray competing risk model was used to establish the P-score based on the three-gene signature combined with PSA value, Gleason score and tumor stage at diagnosis. The endpoint was PCa-specific mortality, while other causes of death were treated as a competing risk. Out of the 591 patients, 315 patients (estimation cohort) were selected to develop the P-score. The P-score was subsequently validated in an independent validation cohort of 276 patients. RESULTS: The P-score was established ranging from the integers 0 to 15. Each one-unit increase was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.27–1.51, p < 0.001). The P-score was validated and performed better in predicting PCa-specific mortality than both D’Amico (0.76 vs 0.70) and NCCN (0.76 vs 0.71) by using the concordance index for competing risk. Similar improvement patterns are shown by time-dependent area under the curve. As demonstrated by cumulative incidence function, both P-score and gene signature stratified PCa patients into significantly different risk groups. CONCLUSION: We developed the P-score, a risk stratification system for newly diagnosed PCa patients by integrating a three-gene signature measured in CNB tissue. The P-score could provide valuable decision support to distinguish PCa patients with favorable and unfavorable outcomes and hence improve treatment decisions.