Dispositional optimism and depression risk in older women in the Nurses´ Health Study: a prospective cohort study

Dispositional optimism is a potentially modifiable factor and has been associated with multiple physical health outcomes, but its relationship with depression, especially later in life, remains unclear. In the Nurses´ Health Study (n = 33,483), we examined associations between dispositional optimism and depression risk in women aged 57–85 (mean = 69.9, SD = 6.8), with 4,051 cases of incident depression and 10 years of follow-up (2004–2014). We defined depression as either having a physician/clinician-diagnosed depression, or regularly using antidepressants, or the presence of severe depressive symptoms using validated self-reported scales. Age- and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) across optimism quartiles and for a 1-standard deviation (SD) increment of the optimism score. In sensitivity analyses we explored more restrictive definitions of depression, potential mediators, and moderators. In multivariable-adjusted models, women with greater optimism (top vs. bottom quartile) had a 27% (95%CI = 19–34%) lower risk of depression. Every 1-SD increase in the optimism score was associated with a 15% (95%CI = 12–18%) lower depression risk. When applying a more restrictive definition for clinical depression, the association was considerably attenuated (every 1-SD increase in the optimism score was associated with a 6% (95%CI = 2–10%-) lower depression risk. Stratified analyses by baseline depressive symptoms, age, race, and birth region revealed comparable estimates, while mediators (emotional support, social network size, healthy lifestyle), when combined, explained approximately 10% of the optimism-depression association. As social and behavioral factors only explained a small proportion of the association, future research should investigate other potential pathways, such as coping strategies, that may relate optimism to depression risk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00837-2 .