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Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)

Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics compo...

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Autores principales: Nisal, Apoorva, Diwekar, Urmila, Hanumante, Neeraj, Shastri, Yogendra, Cabezas, Heriberto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9113600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35580075
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267403
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author Nisal, Apoorva
Diwekar, Urmila
Hanumante, Neeraj
Shastri, Yogendra
Cabezas, Heriberto
author_facet Nisal, Apoorva
Diwekar, Urmila
Hanumante, Neeraj
Shastri, Yogendra
Cabezas, Heriberto
author_sort Nisal, Apoorva
collection PubMed
description Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics components, including energy producers and industries, and various socio-techno-economic policy dimensions. The model consists of 15 compartments representing a simplified ecological food-web set in a macroeconomic framework along with a rudimentary legal system. The food-web is modeled by Lotka–Volterra type expressions, whereas the economy is represented by a price-setting model wherein firms and human households attempt to maximize their economic well-being. The model development is done using global-scale data for stocks and flows of food, energy, and water, which were used to parameterize this model. Appropriate proportions for some of the ecological compartments like herbivores and carnivores are used to model those compartments. The modeling of the human compartment was carried out using historical data for the global mortality rate. Historical data were used to parameterize the model. Data for key variables like the human population, GDP growth, greenhouse gases like CO(2) and NO(X) emissions were used to validate the model. The model was then used to make long-term forecasts and to study global sustainability over an extended time. The purpose of this study was to create a global model which can provide techno-socio-economic policy solutions for global sustainability. Further, scenario analysis was conducted for cases where the human population or human consumption increases rapidly to observe the impact on the sustainability of the planet over the next century. The results indicated that the planet can support increased population if the per capita consumption levels do not rise. However, increased consumption resulted in exhaustion of natural resources and increased the CO(2) emissions by a multiple of 100.
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spelling pubmed-91136002022-05-18 Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM) Nisal, Apoorva Diwekar, Urmila Hanumante, Neeraj Shastri, Yogendra Cabezas, Heriberto PLoS One Research Article Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics components, including energy producers and industries, and various socio-techno-economic policy dimensions. The model consists of 15 compartments representing a simplified ecological food-web set in a macroeconomic framework along with a rudimentary legal system. The food-web is modeled by Lotka–Volterra type expressions, whereas the economy is represented by a price-setting model wherein firms and human households attempt to maximize their economic well-being. The model development is done using global-scale data for stocks and flows of food, energy, and water, which were used to parameterize this model. Appropriate proportions for some of the ecological compartments like herbivores and carnivores are used to model those compartments. The modeling of the human compartment was carried out using historical data for the global mortality rate. Historical data were used to parameterize the model. Data for key variables like the human population, GDP growth, greenhouse gases like CO(2) and NO(X) emissions were used to validate the model. The model was then used to make long-term forecasts and to study global sustainability over an extended time. The purpose of this study was to create a global model which can provide techno-socio-economic policy solutions for global sustainability. Further, scenario analysis was conducted for cases where the human population or human consumption increases rapidly to observe the impact on the sustainability of the planet over the next century. The results indicated that the planet can support increased population if the per capita consumption levels do not rise. However, increased consumption resulted in exhaustion of natural resources and increased the CO(2) emissions by a multiple of 100. Public Library of Science 2022-05-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9113600/ /pubmed/35580075 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267403 Text en © 2022 Nisal et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Nisal, Apoorva
Diwekar, Urmila
Hanumante, Neeraj
Shastri, Yogendra
Cabezas, Heriberto
Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title_full Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title_fullStr Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title_full_unstemmed Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title_short Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)
title_sort integrated model for food-energy-water (few) nexus to study global sustainability: the main generalized global sustainability model (ggsm)
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9113600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35580075
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267403
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