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Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade

The connection between international trade and food systems (un)sustainability is both contentious and critical for policy work supporting progress towards achieving the twin goals of hunger alleviation and dietary health while improving the overall sustainability of development. We characterize the...

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Autores principales: Mapes, Brendan R., Prager, Steven D., Béné, Christophe, Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9116619/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35584099
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264729
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author Mapes, Brendan R.
Prager, Steven D.
Béné, Christophe
Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo
author_facet Mapes, Brendan R.
Prager, Steven D.
Béné, Christophe
Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo
author_sort Mapes, Brendan R.
collection PubMed
description The connection between international trade and food systems (un)sustainability is both contentious and critical for policy work supporting progress towards achieving the twin goals of hunger alleviation and dietary health while improving the overall sustainability of development. We characterize the food system using a set of metrics based upon the EAT-Lancet commission dietary guidelines for both over- and under-consumption of different foods to assess country-level dietary health and sustainability in tandem. Using a partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and trade, we then project the functioning of the global agricultural system to 2050 and calculate the metrics for that year. For most regions we find increased overconsumption above the expert-defined healthy and sustainable diet thresholds, with more limited progress towards closing dietary health and sustainability gaps where they currently exist. Trade influences this dynamic into the future under certain socioeconomic conditions, and we find that under a “business as usual” trade environment, future agricultural import profiles continue to be misaligned with dietary health and sustainability outcomes, suggesting the potential for early intervention in trade policy as a means to positively influence food system outcomes.
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spelling pubmed-91166192022-05-19 Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade Mapes, Brendan R. Prager, Steven D. Béné, Christophe Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo PLoS One Research Article The connection between international trade and food systems (un)sustainability is both contentious and critical for policy work supporting progress towards achieving the twin goals of hunger alleviation and dietary health while improving the overall sustainability of development. We characterize the food system using a set of metrics based upon the EAT-Lancet commission dietary guidelines for both over- and under-consumption of different foods to assess country-level dietary health and sustainability in tandem. Using a partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and trade, we then project the functioning of the global agricultural system to 2050 and calculate the metrics for that year. For most regions we find increased overconsumption above the expert-defined healthy and sustainable diet thresholds, with more limited progress towards closing dietary health and sustainability gaps where they currently exist. Trade influences this dynamic into the future under certain socioeconomic conditions, and we find that under a “business as usual” trade environment, future agricultural import profiles continue to be misaligned with dietary health and sustainability outcomes, suggesting the potential for early intervention in trade policy as a means to positively influence food system outcomes. Public Library of Science 2022-05-18 /pmc/articles/PMC9116619/ /pubmed/35584099 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264729 Text en © 2022 Mapes et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mapes, Brendan R.
Prager, Steven D.
Béné, Christophe
Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo
Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title_full Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title_fullStr Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title_full_unstemmed Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title_short Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—The role of international trade
title_sort healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050—the role of international trade
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9116619/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35584099
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264729
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