Low- and middle-income countries demonstrate rapid growth of type 2 diabetes: an analysis based on Global Burden of Disease 1990–2019 data

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The study aims to quantify the global trend of the disease burden of type 2 diabetes caused by various risks factors by country income tiers. METHODS: Data on type 2 diabetes, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) during 1990–2019, were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We analysed mortality and DALY rates and the population attributable fraction (PAF) in various risk factors of type 2 diabetes by country income tiers. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) attributable to type 2 diabetes increased from 16.7 (15.7, 17.5)/100,000 person-years in 1990 to 18.5 (17.2, 19.7)/100,000 person-years in 2019. Similarly, age-standardised DALY rates increased from 628.3 (537.2, 730.9)/100,000 person-years to 801.5 (670.6, 954.4)/100,000 person-years during 1990–2019. Lower-middle-income countries reported the largest increase in the average annual growth of ASDR (1.3%) and an age-standardised DALY rate (1.6%) of type 2 diabetes. The key PAF attributing to type 2 diabetes deaths/DALYs was high BMI in countries of all income tiers. With the exception of BMI, while in low- and lower-middle-income countries, risk factors attributable to type 2 diabetes-related deaths and DALYs are mostly environment-related, the risk factors in high-income countries are mostly lifestyle-related. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Type 2 diabetes disease burden increased globally, but low- and middle-income countries showed the highest growth rate. A high BMI level remained the key contributing factor in all income tiers, but environmental and lifestyle-related factors contributed differently across income tiers. DATA AVAILABILITY: To download the data used in these analyses, please visit the Global Health Data Exchange at http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2019. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00125-022-05713-6) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material.