How accurate are geriatricians’ fall predictions?

BACKGROUND: Older patients are at increased risk of falling and of serious morbidity and mortality resulting from falls. The ability to accurately identify older patients at increased fall risk affords the opportunity to implement interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality. Geriatricians are trained to assess older patients for fall risk. If geriatricians can accurately predict fallers (as opposed to evaluating for individual risk factors for falling), more aggressive and earlier interventions could be employed to reduce falls in older adult fallers. However, there is paucity of knowledge regarding the accuracy of geriatrician fall risk predictions. This study aims to determine the accuracy of geriatricians in predicting falls. METHODS: Between October 2018 and November 2019, a convenience sample of 100 subjects was recruited from an academic geriatric clinic population seeking routine medical care. Subjects performed a series of gait and balance assessments, answered the Stay Independent Brochure and were surveyed about fall incidence 6–12 months after study entry. Five geriatricians, blinded to subjects and fall outcomes, were provided the subjects’ data and asked to categorize each as a faller or non-faller. No requirements were imposed on the geriatricians’ use of the available data. These predictions were compared to predictions of an examining geriatrician who performed the assessments and to fall outcomes reported by subjects. RESULTS: Kappa values for the 5 geriatricians who used all the available data to classify participants as fallers or non-fallers compared with the examining geriatrician were 0.42 to 0.59, indicating moderate agreement. Compared to screening tools’ mean accuracy of 66.6% (59.6–73.0%), the 5 geriatricians had a mean accuracy for fall prediction of 67.4% (57.3–71.9%). CONCLUSIONS: This study adds to the scant knowledge available in the medical literature regarding the abilities of geriatricians to accurately predict falls in older patients. Studies are needed to characterize how geriatrician assessments of fall risk compare to standardized assessment tools.