Role of pathogen-laden expiratory droplet dispersion and natural ventilation explaining a COVID-19 outbreak in a coach bus

The influencing mechanism of droplet transmissions inside crowded and poorly ventilated buses on infection risks of respiratory diseases is still unclear. Based on experiments of one-infecting-seven COVID-19 outbreak with an index patient at bus rear, we conducted CFD simulations to investigate integrated effects of initial droplet diameters(tracer gas, 5 μm, 50 μm and 100 μm), natural air change rates per hour(ACH = 0.62, 2.27 and 5.66 h(−1) related to bus speeds) and relative humidity(RH = 35% and 95%) on pathogen-laden droplet dispersion and infection risks. Outdoor pressure difference around bus surfaces introduces natural ventilation airflow entering from bus-rear skylight and leaving from the front one. When ACH = 0.62 h(−1)(idling state), the 30-min-exposure infection risk(TIR) of tracer gas is 15.3%(bus rear) - 11.1%(bus front), and decreases to 3.1%(bus rear)-1.3%(bus front) under ACH = 5.66 h(−1)(high bus speed).The TIR of large droplets(i.e., 100 μm/50 μm) is almost independent of ACH, with a peak value(∼3.1%) near the index patient, because over 99.5%/97.0% of droplets deposit locally due to gravity. Moreover, 5 μm droplets can disperse further with the increasing ventilation. However, TIR for 5 μm droplets at ACH = 5.66 h(−1) stays relatively small for rear passengers(maximum 0.4%), and is even smaller in the bus middle and front(<0.1%). This study verifies that differing from general rooms, most 5 μm droplets deposit on the route through the long-and-narrow bus space with large-area surfaces(L∼11.4 m). Therefore, tracer gas can only simulate fine droplet with little deposition but cannot replace 5–100 μm droplet dispersion in coach buses.