Preoperative prediction of malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors by computerized tomography-based radiomics

BACKGROUND: The use of endoscopic surgery for treating gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) between 2 and 5 cm remains controversial considering the potential risk of metastasis and recurrence. Also, surgeons are facing great difficulties and challenges in assessing the malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric GISTs. AIM: To develop and evaluate computerized tomography (CT)-based radiomics for predicting the malignant potential of primary 2-5 cm gastric GISTs. METHODS: A total of 103 patients with pathologically confirmed gastric GISTs between 2 and 5 cm were enrolled. The malignant potential was categorized into low grade and high grade according to postoperative pathology results. Preoperative CT images were reviewed by two radiologists. A radiological model was constructed by CT findings and clinical characteristics using logistic regression. Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative contrast-enhanced CT images in the arterial phase. The XGboost method was used to construct a radiomics model for the prediction of malignant potential. Nomogram was established by combing the radiomics score with CT findings. All of the models were developed in a training group (n = 69) and evaluated in a test group (n = 34). RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) value of the radiological, radiomics, and nomogram models was 0.753 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.597-0.909), 0.919 (95%CI: 0.828-1.000), and 0.916 (95%CI: 0.801-1.000) in the training group vs 0.642 (95%CI: 0.379-0.870), 0.881 (95%CI: 0.772-0.990), and 0.894 (95%CI: 0.773-1.000) in the test group, respectively. The AUC of the nomogram model was significantly larger than that of the radiological model in both the training group (Z = 2.795, P = 0.0052) and test group (Z = 2.785, P = 0.0054). The decision curve of analysis showed that the nomogram model produced increased benefit across the entire risk threshold range. CONCLUSION: Radiomics may be an effective tool to predict the malignant potential of 2-5 cm gastric GISTs and assist preoperative clinical decision making.