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Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

We aimed to develop and validate an objective and easy-to-use model for identifying patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who have a poor 90-day prognosis. This three-center retrospective study included a large cohort of 1,122 patients with ICH who presented within 6 h of symptom...

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Autores principales: Huang, Xiaoyu, Wang, Dan, Zhang, Qiaoying, Ma, Yaqiong, Li, Shenglin, Zhao, Hui, Deng, Juan, Yang, Jingjing, Ren, JiaLiang, Xu, Min, Xi, Huaze, Li, Fukai, Zhang, Hongyu, Xie, Yijing, Yuan, Long, Hai, Yucheng, Yue, Mengying, Zhou, Qing, Zhou, Junlin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9125153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35615596
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2022.904085
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author Huang, Xiaoyu
Wang, Dan
Zhang, Qiaoying
Ma, Yaqiong
Li, Shenglin
Zhao, Hui
Deng, Juan
Yang, Jingjing
Ren, JiaLiang
Xu, Min
Xi, Huaze
Li, Fukai
Zhang, Hongyu
Xie, Yijing
Yuan, Long
Hai, Yucheng
Yue, Mengying
Zhou, Qing
Zhou, Junlin
author_facet Huang, Xiaoyu
Wang, Dan
Zhang, Qiaoying
Ma, Yaqiong
Li, Shenglin
Zhao, Hui
Deng, Juan
Yang, Jingjing
Ren, JiaLiang
Xu, Min
Xi, Huaze
Li, Fukai
Zhang, Hongyu
Xie, Yijing
Yuan, Long
Hai, Yucheng
Yue, Mengying
Zhou, Qing
Zhou, Junlin
author_sort Huang, Xiaoyu
collection PubMed
description We aimed to develop and validate an objective and easy-to-use model for identifying patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who have a poor 90-day prognosis. This three-center retrospective study included a large cohort of 1,122 patients with ICH who presented within 6 h of symptom onset [training cohort, n = 835; internal validation cohort, n = 201; external validation cohort (center 2 and 3), n = 86]. We collected the patients’ baseline clinical, radiological, and laboratory data as well as the 90-day functional outcomes. Independent risk factors for prognosis were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed to visualize the model results while a calibration curve was used to verify whether the predictive performance was satisfactorily consistent with the ideal curve. Finally, we used decision curves to assess the clinical utility of the model. At 90 days, 714 (63.6%) patients had a poor prognosis. Factors associated with prognosis included age, midline shift, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), hypodensities, ICH volume, perihematomal edema (PHE) volume, temperature, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p < 0.05). Moreover, age, ICH volume, and GCS were identified as independent risk factors for prognosis. For identifying patients with poor prognosis, the model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.874, 0.822, and 0.868 in the training cohort, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram showed satisfactory calibration in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed the clinical utility of the nomogram. Taken together, the nomogram developed in this study could facilitate the individualized outcome prediction in patients with ICH.
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spelling pubmed-91251532022-05-24 Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage Huang, Xiaoyu Wang, Dan Zhang, Qiaoying Ma, Yaqiong Li, Shenglin Zhao, Hui Deng, Juan Yang, Jingjing Ren, JiaLiang Xu, Min Xi, Huaze Li, Fukai Zhang, Hongyu Xie, Yijing Yuan, Long Hai, Yucheng Yue, Mengying Zhou, Qing Zhou, Junlin Front Aging Neurosci Neuroscience We aimed to develop and validate an objective and easy-to-use model for identifying patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who have a poor 90-day prognosis. This three-center retrospective study included a large cohort of 1,122 patients with ICH who presented within 6 h of symptom onset [training cohort, n = 835; internal validation cohort, n = 201; external validation cohort (center 2 and 3), n = 86]. We collected the patients’ baseline clinical, radiological, and laboratory data as well as the 90-day functional outcomes. Independent risk factors for prognosis were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed to visualize the model results while a calibration curve was used to verify whether the predictive performance was satisfactorily consistent with the ideal curve. Finally, we used decision curves to assess the clinical utility of the model. At 90 days, 714 (63.6%) patients had a poor prognosis. Factors associated with prognosis included age, midline shift, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), hypodensities, ICH volume, perihematomal edema (PHE) volume, temperature, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p < 0.05). Moreover, age, ICH volume, and GCS were identified as independent risk factors for prognosis. For identifying patients with poor prognosis, the model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.874, 0.822, and 0.868 in the training cohort, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram showed satisfactory calibration in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed the clinical utility of the nomogram. Taken together, the nomogram developed in this study could facilitate the individualized outcome prediction in patients with ICH. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-05-09 /pmc/articles/PMC9125153/ /pubmed/35615596 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2022.904085 Text en Copyright © 2022 Huang, Wang, Zhang, Ma, Li, Zhao, Deng, Yang, Ren, Xu, Xi, Li, Zhang, Xie, Yuan, Hai, Yue, Zhou and Zhou. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Neuroscience
Huang, Xiaoyu
Wang, Dan
Zhang, Qiaoying
Ma, Yaqiong
Li, Shenglin
Zhao, Hui
Deng, Juan
Yang, Jingjing
Ren, JiaLiang
Xu, Min
Xi, Huaze
Li, Fukai
Zhang, Hongyu
Xie, Yijing
Yuan, Long
Hai, Yucheng
Yue, Mengying
Zhou, Qing
Zhou, Junlin
Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title_full Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title_fullStr Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title_short Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
title_sort development and validation of a clinical-based signature to predict the 90-day functional outcome for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage
topic Neuroscience
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9125153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35615596
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2022.904085
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