The impact of public health interventions on the future prevalence of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae: a population based mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Future prevalence of colonization with extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL-) producing K. pneumoniae in humans and the potential of public health interventions against the spread of these resistant bacteria remain uncertain. METHODS: Based on antimicrobial consumption and susceptibility data recorded during > 13 years in a Swiss region, we developed a mathematical model to assess the comparative effect of different interventions on the prevalence of colonization. RESULTS: Simulated prevalence stabilized in the near future when rates of antimicrobial consumption and in-hospital transmission were assumed to remain stable (2025 prevalence: 6.8% (95CI%:5.4–8.8%) in hospitals, 3.5% (2.5–5.0%) in the community versus 6.1% (5.0–7.5%) and 3.2% (2.3–4.2%) in 2019, respectively). When overall antimicrobial consumption was set to decrease by 50%, 2025 prevalence declined by 75% in hospitals and by 64% in the community. A 50% decline in in-hospital transmission rate led to a reduction in 2025 prevalence of 31% in hospitals and no reduction in the community. The best model fit estimated that 49% (6–100%) of observed colonizations could be attributable to sources other than human-to-human transmission within the geographical setting. CONCLUSIONS: Projections suggests that overall antimicrobial consumption will be, by far, the most powerful driver of prevalence and that a large fraction of colonizations could be attributed to non-local transmissions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07441-z.