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The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study

Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are es...

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Autores principales: Sararat, Chayanin, Changruenngam, Suttikiat, Chumkaeo, Arun, Wiratsudakul, Anuwat, Pan-ngum, Wirichada, Modchang, Charin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9126089/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35536861
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010397
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author Sararat, Chayanin
Changruenngam, Suttikiat
Chumkaeo, Arun
Wiratsudakul, Anuwat
Pan-ngum, Wirichada
Modchang, Charin
author_facet Sararat, Chayanin
Changruenngam, Suttikiat
Chumkaeo, Arun
Wiratsudakul, Anuwat
Pan-ngum, Wirichada
Modchang, Charin
author_sort Sararat, Chayanin
collection PubMed
description Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area.
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spelling pubmed-91260892022-05-24 The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study Sararat, Chayanin Changruenngam, Suttikiat Chumkaeo, Arun Wiratsudakul, Anuwat Pan-ngum, Wirichada Modchang, Charin PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area. Public Library of Science 2022-05-10 /pmc/articles/PMC9126089/ /pubmed/35536861 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010397 Text en © 2022 Sararat et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sararat, Chayanin
Changruenngam, Suttikiat
Chumkaeo, Arun
Wiratsudakul, Anuwat
Pan-ngum, Wirichada
Modchang, Charin
The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title_full The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title_fullStr The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title_full_unstemmed The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title_short The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study
title_sort effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: an individual-based modeling study
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9126089/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35536861
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010397
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