Predictors of blood glucose change and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Felege Hiwot and Debre Markos referral hospital, North West Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Microvascular complications lead to disability, dependency, and accelerated morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to identify predictors of blood glucose change and time to microvascular complications among patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients enrolled between December 2014 and December 2015 at Felege Hiwot and Debre Markos Referral Hospital. A total of 318 T2DM patients were included in the study. Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival analysis was employed to identify predictors of Blood Glucose Change and Microvascular Complications in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients. RESULTS: The prevalence of microvascular complications in Type 2 diabetes patients was 26.3%, 95%confidence interval(CI):(21.5, 31.1). Of which, half of the patients developed a microvascular complication after 30 months from the onset of the follow-up. The significant predictors of developing microvascular complication were positive proteinurea (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.418, 95%CI: 1.080, 1.861), Serum creatinine (AHR = 3.704, 95%CI: 1.992, 6.887), Weight (AHR = 1.058, 95%CI: 1.023, 1.094), and log fasting blood glucose(log(FBS))(AHR = 1.013, 95%CI: 1.010, 1.015). The predictors of fasting blood glucose progression were higher baseline FBS(est(estimate) = 0.002,95%CI:0.0018, 0.0022), Systolic blood pressure (SBP) (est = 0.003, 95%CI: 0.002, 0.004), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (est = 0.002, 95%CI: 0.0002, 0.004), and age (est = 0.003, 95%CI: 0.001, 0.004). CONCLUSION: The progression of the fasting blood glucose level for rural patients was faster than for urban patients. Patients having higher baseline FBS, previous hypertension history, higher SBP, higher DBP, older age, and fewer visits to the hospital have a relatively more progressive change in blood sugar levels. Patients having higher triglyceride levels, positive proteinuria, higher fasting blood sugar, higher weight, and a lesser number of hospital visits have a higher risk of developing a complication. In response to this finding, an aggressive intervention that targets to prevent microvascular complications is required.