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Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget

BACKGROUND: Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic...

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Autores principales: Hong, Mina, Song, Cholho, Kim, Moonil, Kim, Jiwon, Lee, Sle-gee, Lim, Chul-Hee, Cho, Kijong, Son, Yowhan, Lee, Woo-Kyun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9128252/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35606462
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-022-00208-8
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author Hong, Mina
Song, Cholho
Kim, Moonil
Kim, Jiwon
Lee, Sle-gee
Lim, Chul-Hee
Cho, Kijong
Son, Yowhan
Lee, Woo-Kyun
author_facet Hong, Mina
Song, Cholho
Kim, Moonil
Kim, Jiwon
Lee, Sle-gee
Lim, Chul-Hee
Cho, Kijong
Son, Yowhan
Lee, Woo-Kyun
author_sort Hong, Mina
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the forest sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and forest management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on forest growth and CO(2) sequestration. RESULTS: Forest growth was predicted to gradually decline, and CO(2) sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO(2) year(−1) in 2030 and 27 million tCO(2) year(−1) in 2050 can be achieved if ideal forest management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current forest management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets. CONCLUSIONS: The growth trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based forest management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation.
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spelling pubmed-91282522022-05-25 Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget Hong, Mina Song, Cholho Kim, Moonil Kim, Jiwon Lee, Sle-gee Lim, Chul-Hee Cho, Kijong Son, Yowhan Lee, Woo-Kyun Carbon Balance Manag Research BACKGROUND: Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the forest sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and forest management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on forest growth and CO(2) sequestration. RESULTS: Forest growth was predicted to gradually decline, and CO(2) sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO(2) year(−1) in 2030 and 27 million tCO(2) year(−1) in 2050 can be achieved if ideal forest management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current forest management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets. CONCLUSIONS: The growth trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based forest management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation. Springer International Publishing 2022-05-23 /pmc/articles/PMC9128252/ /pubmed/35606462 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-022-00208-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Hong, Mina
Song, Cholho
Kim, Moonil
Kim, Jiwon
Lee, Sle-gee
Lim, Chul-Hee
Cho, Kijong
Son, Yowhan
Lee, Woo-Kyun
Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title_full Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title_fullStr Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title_full_unstemmed Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title_short Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
title_sort application of integrated korean forest growth dynamics model to meet ndc target by considering forest management scenarios and budget
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9128252/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35606462
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-022-00208-8
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