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Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adju...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130123/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35610355 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z |
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author | Chaw, Liling Liew, Sabrina Q. R. Wong, Justin |
author_facet | Chaw, Liling Liew, Sabrina Q. R. Wong, Justin |
author_sort | Chaw, Liling |
collection | PubMed |
description | We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, we observed positive but delayed relationship between PTB incidence and minimum temperature, with significant adjusted relative risk (adj.RR) at 25.1 °C (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 30 onwards (adj.RR = 1.17 [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.01, 1.36]), suggesting effect of minimum temperature on PTB incidence after 30 weeks. Similar results were observed from a sub-analysis on smear-positive PTB case counts from lag 29 onwards (adj.RR = 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.45]), along with positive and delayed association with total rainfall at 160.7 mm (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 42 onwards (adj.RR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.49]). Our findings reveal evidence of delayed effects of climate on PTB incidence in Brunei, but with varying degrees of magnitude, direction and timing. Though explainable by environmental and social factors, further studies on the relative contribution of recent (through primary human-to-human transmission) and remote (through reactivation of latent TB) TB infection in equatorial settings is warranted. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9130123 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-91301232022-05-26 Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam Chaw, Liling Liew, Sabrina Q. R. Wong, Justin Sci Rep Article We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, we observed positive but delayed relationship between PTB incidence and minimum temperature, with significant adjusted relative risk (adj.RR) at 25.1 °C (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 30 onwards (adj.RR = 1.17 [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.01, 1.36]), suggesting effect of minimum temperature on PTB incidence after 30 weeks. Similar results were observed from a sub-analysis on smear-positive PTB case counts from lag 29 onwards (adj.RR = 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.45]), along with positive and delayed association with total rainfall at 160.7 mm (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 42 onwards (adj.RR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.49]). Our findings reveal evidence of delayed effects of climate on PTB incidence in Brunei, but with varying degrees of magnitude, direction and timing. Though explainable by environmental and social factors, further studies on the relative contribution of recent (through primary human-to-human transmission) and remote (through reactivation of latent TB) TB infection in equatorial settings is warranted. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-05-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9130123/ /pubmed/35610355 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Chaw, Liling Liew, Sabrina Q. R. Wong, Justin Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title | Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title_full | Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title_fullStr | Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title_full_unstemmed | Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title_short | Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam |
title_sort | association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in brunei darussalam |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130123/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35610355 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z |
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