Cargando…

Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam

We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adju...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chaw, Liling, Liew, Sabrina Q. R., Wong, Justin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130123/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35610355
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z
_version_ 1784712920212439040
author Chaw, Liling
Liew, Sabrina Q. R.
Wong, Justin
author_facet Chaw, Liling
Liew, Sabrina Q. R.
Wong, Justin
author_sort Chaw, Liling
collection PubMed
description We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, we observed positive but delayed relationship between PTB incidence and minimum temperature, with significant adjusted relative risk (adj.RR) at 25.1 °C (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 30 onwards (adj.RR = 1.17 [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.01, 1.36]), suggesting effect of minimum temperature on PTB incidence after 30 weeks. Similar results were observed from a sub-analysis on smear-positive PTB case counts from lag 29 onwards (adj.RR = 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.45]), along with positive and delayed association with total rainfall at 160.7 mm (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 42 onwards (adj.RR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.49]). Our findings reveal evidence of delayed effects of climate on PTB incidence in Brunei, but with varying degrees of magnitude, direction and timing. Though explainable by environmental and social factors, further studies on the relative contribution of recent (through primary human-to-human transmission) and remote (through reactivation of latent TB) TB infection in equatorial settings is warranted.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9130123
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-91301232022-05-26 Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam Chaw, Liling Liew, Sabrina Q. R. Wong, Justin Sci Rep Article We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, we observed positive but delayed relationship between PTB incidence and minimum temperature, with significant adjusted relative risk (adj.RR) at 25.1 °C (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 30 onwards (adj.RR = 1.17 [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.01, 1.36]), suggesting effect of minimum temperature on PTB incidence after 30 weeks. Similar results were observed from a sub-analysis on smear-positive PTB case counts from lag 29 onwards (adj.RR = 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.45]), along with positive and delayed association with total rainfall at 160.7 mm (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 42 onwards (adj.RR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.49]). Our findings reveal evidence of delayed effects of climate on PTB incidence in Brunei, but with varying degrees of magnitude, direction and timing. Though explainable by environmental and social factors, further studies on the relative contribution of recent (through primary human-to-human transmission) and remote (through reactivation of latent TB) TB infection in equatorial settings is warranted. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-05-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9130123/ /pubmed/35610355 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Chaw, Liling
Liew, Sabrina Q. R.
Wong, Justin
Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title_full Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title_fullStr Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title_full_unstemmed Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title_short Association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Brunei Darussalam
title_sort association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in brunei darussalam
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130123/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35610355
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12796-z
work_keys_str_mv AT chawliling associationbetweenclimatevariablesandpulmonarytuberculosisincidenceinbruneidarussalam
AT liewsabrinaqr associationbetweenclimatevariablesandpulmonarytuberculosisincidenceinbruneidarussalam
AT wongjustin associationbetweenclimatevariablesandpulmonarytuberculosisincidenceinbruneidarussalam