Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7...

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Autores principales: Zhao, Shi, Cao, Peihua, Gao, Daozhou, Zhuang, Zian, Wang, Weiming, Ran, Jinjun, Wang, Kai, Yang, Lin, Einollahi, Mohammad R., Lou, Yijun, He, Daihai, Wang, Maggie H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2022
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9132685/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35637656
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005
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author Zhao, Shi
Cao, Peihua
Gao, Daozhou
Zhuang, Zian
Wang, Weiming
Ran, Jinjun
Wang, Kai
Yang, Lin
Einollahi, Mohammad R.
Lou, Yijun
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
author_facet Zhao, Shi
Cao, Peihua
Gao, Daozhou
Zhuang, Zian
Wang, Weiming
Ran, Jinjun
Wang, Kai
Yang, Lin
Einollahi, Mohammad R.
Lou, Yijun
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
author_sort Zhao, Shi
collection PubMed
description The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
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spelling pubmed-91326852022-05-26 Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data Zhao, Shi Cao, Peihua Gao, Daozhou Zhuang, Zian Wang, Weiming Ran, Jinjun Wang, Kai Yang, Lin Einollahi, Mohammad R. Lou, Yijun He, Daihai Wang, Maggie H. Infect Dis Model Original Research Article The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings. KeAi Publishing 2022-05-26 /pmc/articles/PMC9132685/ /pubmed/35637656 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Zhao, Shi
Cao, Peihua
Gao, Daozhou
Zhuang, Zian
Wang, Weiming
Ran, Jinjun
Wang, Kai
Yang, Lin
Einollahi, Mohammad R.
Lou, Yijun
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title_full Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title_fullStr Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title_full_unstemmed Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title_short Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
title_sort modelling covid-19 outbreak on the diamond princess ship using the public surveillance data
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9132685/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35637656
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005
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