Predicting progression to severe COVID-19 using the PAINT score

OBJECTIVES: One of the major challenges in treating patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is predicting the severity of disease. We aimed to develop a new score for predicting progression from mild/moderate to severe COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 239 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from two medical centers in China between February 6 and April 6, 2020 were retrospectively included. The prognostic abilities of variables, including clinical data and laboratory findings from the electronic medical records of each hospital, were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan–Meier methods. A prognostic score was developed to predict progression from mild/moderate to severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Among the 239 patients, 216 (90.38%) patients had mild/moderate disease, and 23 (9.62%) progressed to severe disease. After adjusting for multiple confounding factors, pulmonary disease, age > 75, IgM, CD16(+)/CD56(+) NK cells and aspartate aminotransferase were independent predictors of progression to severe COVID-19. Based on these five factors, a new predictive score (the ‘PAINT score’) was established and showed a high predictive value (C-index = 0.91, 0.902 ± 0.021, p < 0.001). The PAINT score was validated using a nomogram, bootstrap analysis, calibration curves, decision curves and clinical impact curves, all of which confirmed its high predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The PAINT score for progression from mild/moderate to severe COVID-19 may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk of progression. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07466-4.