External Validation of Two Established Clinical Risk Scores Predicting Outcome after Local Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases in a Nationwide Cohort

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) are able to achieve long-term survival when they receive local treatment of CRLM (resection or tumor ablation). Existing clinical risk scores (CRSs) predicting prognosis of patients after resection of colorectal liver metastases were developed in highly specialized centers and thus may not function in the general population. We validated the Fong and GAME CRSs in a large population-based cohort, including two important subgroups: young/elderly and with/without perioperative chemotherapy. Both CRSs showed predictive ability. However, they were not able to discriminate preoperative risk sufficiently for clinical decision-making and, thus, require improvement. ABSTRACT: Optimized surgical techniques and systemic therapy have increased the number of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) eligible for local treatment. To increase postoperative survival, we need to stratify patients to customize therapy. Most clinical risk scores (CRSs) which predict prognosis after CRLM resection were based on the outcome of studies in specialized centers, and this may hamper the generalizability of these CRSs in unselected populations and underrepresented subgroups. We aimed to externally validate two CRSs in a population-based cohort of patients with CRLM. A total of 1105 patients with local treatment of CRLM, diagnosed in 2015/2016, were included from a nationwide population-based database. Survival outcomes were analyzed. The Fong and more recently developed GAME CRS were externally validated, including in pre-specified subgroups (≤70/>70 years and with/without perioperative systemic therapy). The three-year DFS was 22.8%, and the median OS in the GAME risk groups (high/moderate/low) was 32.4, 46.7, and 68.1 months, respectively (p < 0.005). The median OS for patients with versus without perioperative therapy was 47.6 (95%CI [39.8, 56.2]) and 54.9 months (95%CI [48.8, 63.7]), respectively (p = 0.152), and for below/above 70 years, it was 54.9 (95%CI [49.3–64.1]) and 44.2 months (95%CI [37.1–54.3]), respectively (p < 0.005). The discriminative ability for OS of Fong CRS was 0.577 (95%CI [0.554, 0.601]), and for GAME, it was 0.596 (95%CI [0.572, 0.621]), and was comparable in the subgroups. In conclusion, both CRSs showed predictive ability in a population-based cohort and in predefined subgroups. However, the limited discriminative ability of these CRSs results in insufficient preoperative risk stratification for clinical decision-making.