Cargando…

Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (ca...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Schreuder, Janneke, de Knegt, Henrik J., Velkers, Francisca C., Elbers, Armin R. W., Stahl, Julia, Slaterus, Roy, Stegeman, J. Arjan, de Boer, Willem F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9143584/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35631070
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549
_version_ 1784715842055831552
author Schreuder, Janneke
de Knegt, Henrik J.
Velkers, Francisca C.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Stahl, Julia
Slaterus, Roy
Stegeman, J. Arjan
de Boer, Willem F.
author_facet Schreuder, Janneke
de Knegt, Henrik J.
Velkers, Francisca C.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Stahl, Julia
Slaterus, Roy
Stegeman, J. Arjan
de Boer, Willem F.
author_sort Schreuder, Janneke
collection PubMed
description Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan (Cygnus olor), common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) and brant goose (Branta bernicla). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9143584
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-91435842022-05-29 Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands Schreuder, Janneke de Knegt, Henrik J. Velkers, Francisca C. Elbers, Armin R. W. Stahl, Julia Slaterus, Roy Stegeman, J. Arjan de Boer, Willem F. Pathogens Article Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan (Cygnus olor), common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) and brant goose (Branta bernicla). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks. MDPI 2022-05-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9143584/ /pubmed/35631070 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Schreuder, Janneke
de Knegt, Henrik J.
Velkers, Francisca C.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Stahl, Julia
Slaterus, Roy
Stegeman, J. Arjan
de Boer, Willem F.
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title_full Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title_fullStr Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title_full_unstemmed Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title_short Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
title_sort wild bird densities and landscape variables predict spatial patterns in hpai outbreak risk across the netherlands
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9143584/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35631070
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549
work_keys_str_mv AT schreuderjanneke wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT deknegthenrikj wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT velkersfranciscac wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT elbersarminrw wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT stahljulia wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT slaterusroy wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT stegemanjarjan wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands
AT deboerwillemf wildbirddensitiesandlandscapevariablespredictspatialpatternsinhpaioutbreakriskacrossthenetherlands