Evaluation of the Revised Trauma Score, MGAP, and GAP scoring systems in predicting mortality of adult trauma patients in a low-resource setting

BACKGROUND: Numerous trauma scoring systems have been developed in an attempt to accurately and efficiently predict the prognosis of emergent trauma cases. However, it has been questioned as to whether the accuracy and pragmatism of such systems still hold in lower-resource settings that exist in many hospitals in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this study, it was hypothesized that the physiologically-based Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Mechanism/Glasgow Coma Scale/Age/Pressure (MGAP) score, and Glasgow Coma Scale/Age/Pressure (GAP) score would be effective at predicting mortality outcomes using clinical data at presentation in a representative LMIC hospital in Upper Egypt. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the medical records of trauma patients at Beni-Suef University Hospital. Medical records of all trauma patients admitted to the hospital over the 8-month period from January to August 2016 were reviewed. For each case, the RTS, MGAP, and GAP scores were calculated using clinical data at presentation, and mortality prediction was correlated to the actual in-hospital outcome. RESULTS: The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was calculated to be 0.879, 0.890, and 0.881 for the MGAP, GAP, and RTS respectively, with all three scores showing good discriminatory ability. With regards to prevalence-dependent statistics, all three scores demonstrated efficacy in ruling out mortality upon presentation with negative predictive values > 95%, while the MGAP score best captured the mortality subgroup with a sensitivity of 94%. Adjustment of cutoff scores showed a steep trade-off between optimizing the positive predictive values versus the sensitivities. CONCLUSION: The RTS, MGAP, and GAP all showed good discriminatory capabilities per AUROC. Given the relative simplicity and potentially added clinical benefit in capturing critically ill patients, the MGAP score should be further studied for stratifying risk of incoming trauma patients to the emergency department, allowing for more efficacious triage of patients in lower-resource healthcare settings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-022-00653-1.