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COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on...

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Autores principales: Toor, Jaspreet, Li, Xiang, Jit, Mark, Trotter, Caroline L., Echeverria-Londono, Susy, Hartner, Anna-Maria, Roth, Jeremy, Portnoy, Allison, Abbas, Kaja, Ferguson, Neil M., AM Gaythorpe, Katy
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9148934/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35672179
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.074
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author Toor, Jaspreet
Li, Xiang
Jit, Mark
Trotter, Caroline L.
Echeverria-Londono, Susy
Hartner, Anna-Maria
Roth, Jeremy
Portnoy, Allison
Abbas, Kaja
Ferguson, Neil M.
AM Gaythorpe, Katy
author_facet Toor, Jaspreet
Li, Xiang
Jit, Mark
Trotter, Caroline L.
Echeverria-Londono, Susy
Hartner, Anna-Maria
Roth, Jeremy
Portnoy, Allison
Abbas, Kaja
Ferguson, Neil M.
AM Gaythorpe, Katy
author_sort Toor, Jaspreet
collection PubMed
description Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.
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spelling pubmed-91489342022-05-31 COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery Toor, Jaspreet Li, Xiang Jit, Mark Trotter, Caroline L. Echeverria-Londono, Susy Hartner, Anna-Maria Roth, Jeremy Portnoy, Allison Abbas, Kaja Ferguson, Neil M. AM Gaythorpe, Katy Vaccine Article Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery. The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022-07-29 2022-05-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9148934/ /pubmed/35672179 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.074 Text en © 2022 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Toor, Jaspreet
Li, Xiang
Jit, Mark
Trotter, Caroline L.
Echeverria-Londono, Susy
Hartner, Anna-Maria
Roth, Jeremy
Portnoy, Allison
Abbas, Kaja
Ferguson, Neil M.
AM Gaythorpe, Katy
COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title_full COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title_fullStr COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title_short COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
title_sort covid-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: projecting the effect of different routes to recovery
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9148934/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35672179
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.074
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