Predictors and prognostic impact of left ventricular ejection fraction trajectories in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) trajectories after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). AIM: We aim to identify the LVEF trajectories after STEMI and explore their predictors and association with prognosis. METHODS: This is a retrospective, observational study of STEMI patients. The LVEF trajectories were identified by the latent class trajectory model in patients with baseline LVEF < 50%. We used logistic regression analysis to investigate the predictors for LVEF trajectories. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the impact of LVEF trajectories on prognosis. The primary outcomes were cardiovascular mortality and heart failure (HF) rehospitalization. RESULTS: 572 of 1179 patients presented with baseline normal LVEF (≥ 50%) and 607 with baseline reduced LVEF (< 50%). Two distinct LVEF trajectories were identified in patients with baseline reduced LVEF: recovered LVEF group and persistently reduced LVEF group. Higher baseline LVEF, lower peak troponin T, non-anterior MI, and lower heart rates were all found to be independently associated with LVEF recovery. After multivariate adjustments, patients with persistently reduced LVEF experienced an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 7.49, 95% CI 1.94–28.87, P = 0.003) and HF rehospitalization (HR 3.54, 95% CI 1.56–8.06 P = 0.003) compared to patients with baseline normal LVEF. Patients with recovered LVEF, on the other hand, showed no significant risk of cardiovascular mortality and HF rehospitalization. CONCLUSION: Our study indicated two distinct LVEF trajectories after STEMI and that the persistently reduced LVEF trajectory was related to poor prognosis. In addition, several baseline characteristics can predict LVEF recovery. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40520-022-02087-y.