Risk assessment of COVID-19 infection for subway commuters integrating dynamic changes in passenger numbers

The COVID-19 global pandemic has had a significant impact on mass travel. We examined the risk of transmission of COVID-19 infection between subway commuters using the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model. The model considered factors that may influence virus transmission, namely subway disinfection, ventilation capacity, average commuter spacing, single subway journey time, COVID-19 transmission capacity, and dynamic changes in passenger numbers. Based on these parameters, above a certain threshold (25 min), the risk of infection for susceptible people increased significantly as journey time increased. Average distance between commuters and levels of ventilation and disinfection were also important influencing factors. Meanwhile, the model also indicated that the risk of infection varied at different times of the day. Therefore, this paper recommends strengthening ventilation and disinfection in the carriages and limiting the time of single journeys, with an average distance of at least 1 m between passengers. In this light, subway commuters need to take proactive precautions to reduce their risk of COVID-19 infection. Also, the results show the importance of managing subway stations efficiently during epidemic and post-epidemic eras.