Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China’s energy-related CO(2) emission pathways based on Kaya identity

China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO(2) emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO(2) emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO(2) emissions, explicitly considering China’s economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020–2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6,200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario with the energy-related CO(2) emissions peaking at 11.1 Gt in 2026–2027 advanced by the rising non-fossil energy share, while energy consumption and CO(2) emissions in the accelerated transition scenario would be potentially reduced by 300 Mtce and 300–400 Mt respectively. In the BAU scenario, the net CO(2) emissions will remain around 2,000 Mt in 2060, after removing 1,800 Mt by CCS/CCUS, indicating that China needs to enhance its post-2030 policy to deliver the carbon neutrality pledge. Steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring are three key driving forces for carbon neutrality. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-21044-w.