A Novel Method for Adult Height Prediction in Children With Idiopathic Short Stature Derived From a German-Dutch Cohort

CONTEXT: Prediction of adult height (AH) is important in clinical management of short children. The conventional methods of Bayley-Pinneau (BP) or Roche-Wainer-Thissen (RWT) have limitations. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a set of algorithms for AH prediction in patients with idiopathic short stature (ISS) which are specific for combinations of predicting variables. METHODS: Demographic and auxologic data were collected in childhood (1980s) and at AH (1990s). Data were collected by Dutch and German referral centers for pediatric endocrinology. A total of 292 subjects with ISS (219 male, 73 female) were enrolled. The population was randomly split into modeling (n = 235) and validation (n = 57) cohorts. Linear multi-regression analysis was performed with predicted AH (PAH) as response variable and combinations of chronological age (CA), baseline height, parental heights, relative bone age (BA/CA), birth weight, and sex as exploratory variables. RESULTS: Ten models including different exploratory variables were selected with adjusted R² ranging from 0.84 to 0.78 and prediction errors from 3.16 to 3.68 cm. Applied to the validation cohort, mean residuals (PAH minus observed AH) ranged from −0.29 to −0.82 cm, while the conventional methods showed some overprediction (BP: +0.53 cm; RWT: +1.33 cm; projected AH: +3.81 cm). There was no significant trend of residuals with PAH or any exploratory variables, in contrast to BP and projected AH. CONCLUSION: This set of 10 multi-regression algorithms, developed specifically for children with ISS, provides a flexible tool for AH prediction with better accuracy than the conventional methods.