Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia

SARS-CoV-2 transmission models have been fairly inaccurate in their predictions for Africa. Here, based on an analysis of surveillance data from Namibia, we conclude that it is necessary to include spatial demography, and travel, in SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in order to make more accurate predi...

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Autores principales: Okano, Justin T, Valdano, Eugenio, Mitonga, Honore K, Blower, Sally
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Letter to the Editor
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9156027/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35238942
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac034
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author Okano, Justin T
Valdano, Eugenio
Mitonga, Honore K
Blower, Sally
author_facet Okano, Justin T
Valdano, Eugenio
Mitonga, Honore K
Blower, Sally
author_sort Okano, Justin T
collection PubMed
description SARS-CoV-2 transmission models have been fairly inaccurate in their predictions for Africa. Here, based on an analysis of surveillance data from Namibia, we conclude that it is necessary to include spatial demography, and travel, in SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in order to make more accurate predictions for COVID-19 epidemics in Africa.
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spelling pubmed-91560272022-08-17 Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia Okano, Justin T Valdano, Eugenio Mitonga, Honore K Blower, Sally J Travel Med Letter to the Editor SARS-CoV-2 transmission models have been fairly inaccurate in their predictions for Africa. Here, based on an analysis of surveillance data from Namibia, we conclude that it is necessary to include spatial demography, and travel, in SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in order to make more accurate predictions for COVID-19 epidemics in Africa. Oxford University Press 2022-03-03 /pmc/articles/PMC9156027/ /pubmed/35238942 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac034 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society of Travel Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_modelThis article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model) This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.
spellingShingle Letter to the Editor
Okano, Justin T
Valdano, Eugenio
Mitonga, Honore K
Blower, Sally
Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title_full Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title_fullStr Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title_short Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia
title_sort predicting the transmission of sars-cov-2 in africa: the case of namibia
topic Letter to the Editor
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9156027/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35238942
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac034
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