The Aging Trend of Insureds and Stochastic Evaluation of Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension in China

The document, National Medium and Long Term Plan for Actively Responding to the Aging of Population points out that in order to actively respond to the aging population in China, it is necessary to steadily increase the endowment wealth reserves. To achieve this goal, it is urgent to stochastically assess the future financial situation of the basic pension insurance in China, grasp its various possible conditions, trends, and corresponding confidence intervals, so that the government can take targeted measures to gradually consolidate the wealth reserves for this basic insurance first, and then steadily increase the social wealth reserves for the elderly. Thus, this paper first analyzes the characteristics of the aging population of insureds participating in basic pension insurance, and then randomly simulates the long-term financial situation of the basic pension insurance. The study found that the aging of the insureds has the characteristics of “fierce coming and slow decline” and “long-term seriousness.” Among the six indicators of the financial situation of basic pension insurance, Indicator 1 (the current year's expenditures as a proportion of current year's contributions), Indicator 2 (current year's balance of contributions and expenditures), Indicator 3 (current year's payment gap as a proportion of current year's contributions), Indicator 4 (accumulated balance), Indicator 5 (fund ratio), and Indicator 6 (accumulated payment gap as a proportion of current year's contributions) are respectively in the range of [0.73%, 1.80%], [−12.05, −0.12] trillion yuan, [0.29%, 3.89%], [−133.39, −5.62] trillion yuan, [2032, 2043] years and [6.72%, 215.63%] with a probability of 95%. We analyzed the influence direction and degree of main parameters on the financial situation of the fund and analyzed the impact of parameter value paths on the final financial status of the fund to improve the ability to strengthen fund reserve. The backtracking found that if the value path of the average salary growth rate shows a trend of rising first and then falling, then the final financial situation at the end of the period will be “worse.” If it shows a trend of falling first and then rising, the final financial situation will be “better.”