Trends and effect of marginalization on diabetes mellitus-related mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2019

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is currently one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the disease evolves differently across countries. This study intends to characterize the trends and assess the potential effects of marginalization on DM mortality between 1990 and 2019 in Mexico. We analyzed death certificates that listed DM as the underlying cause of death (N = 1,907,173), as well as the extent to which DM mortality changes were associated with marginalization through an age-period-cohort analysis. DM mortality increased in Mexico between 1990 and 2019; the change was faster in the first half and slowed down after 2004. The highest marginalization quintiles drove the changes in DM mortality trends during the study period, with a higher risk of dying in these quintiles as age increased. In recent cohorts, the highest marginalization quintiles doubled the risk of dying from DM as compared to the lowest. Renal complications was the main death driver among persons with DM, with a marked increase between 1999 and 2001. In conclusion, Mexico continues to have a substantially high DM mortality, but its pace slowed over time. Moreover, subnational differences in marginalization can partially explain such a trend.