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Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics

The fraction of cases reported, known as ‘reporting’, is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an...

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Autores principales: Jarvis, Christopher I., Gimma, Amy, Finger, Flavio, Morris, Tim P., Thompson, Jennifer A., le Polain de Waroux, Olivier, Edmunds, W. John, Funk, Sebastian, Jombart, Thibaut
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9166360/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35604952
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008800
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author Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Finger, Flavio
Morris, Tim P.
Thompson, Jennifer A.
le Polain de Waroux, Olivier
Edmunds, W. John
Funk, Sebastian
Jombart, Thibaut
author_facet Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Finger, Flavio
Morris, Tim P.
Thompson, Jennifer A.
le Polain de Waroux, Olivier
Edmunds, W. John
Funk, Sebastian
Jombart, Thibaut
author_sort Jarvis, Christopher I.
collection PubMed
description The fraction of cases reported, known as ‘reporting’, is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an epidemic which is, by definition, not observed. We introduce a simple statistical method for estimating reporting, initially developed for the response to Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018–2020. This approach uses transmission chain data typically gathered through case investigation and contact tracing, and uses the proportion of investigated cases with a known, reported infector as a proxy for reporting. Using simulated epidemics, we study how this method performs for different outbreak sizes and reporting levels. Results suggest that our method has low bias, reasonable precision, and despite sub-optimal coverage, usually provides estimates within close range (5–10%) of the true value. Being fast and simple, this method could be useful for estimating reporting in real-time in settings where person-to-person transmission is the main driver of the epidemic, and where case investigation is routinely performed as part of surveillance and contact tracing activities.
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spelling pubmed-91663602022-06-05 Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics Jarvis, Christopher I. Gimma, Amy Finger, Flavio Morris, Tim P. Thompson, Jennifer A. le Polain de Waroux, Olivier Edmunds, W. John Funk, Sebastian Jombart, Thibaut PLoS Comput Biol Research Article The fraction of cases reported, known as ‘reporting’, is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an epidemic which is, by definition, not observed. We introduce a simple statistical method for estimating reporting, initially developed for the response to Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018–2020. This approach uses transmission chain data typically gathered through case investigation and contact tracing, and uses the proportion of investigated cases with a known, reported infector as a proxy for reporting. Using simulated epidemics, we study how this method performs for different outbreak sizes and reporting levels. Results suggest that our method has low bias, reasonable precision, and despite sub-optimal coverage, usually provides estimates within close range (5–10%) of the true value. Being fast and simple, this method could be useful for estimating reporting in real-time in settings where person-to-person transmission is the main driver of the epidemic, and where case investigation is routinely performed as part of surveillance and contact tracing activities. Public Library of Science 2022-05-23 /pmc/articles/PMC9166360/ /pubmed/35604952 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008800 Text en © 2022 Jarvis et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Jarvis, Christopher I.
Gimma, Amy
Finger, Flavio
Morris, Tim P.
Thompson, Jennifer A.
le Polain de Waroux, Olivier
Edmunds, W. John
Funk, Sebastian
Jombart, Thibaut
Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title_full Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title_fullStr Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title_short Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
title_sort measuring the unknown: an estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9166360/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35604952
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008800
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