Predictors of a successful vaginal delivery in women with type 1 diabetes: a retrospective analysis of 20 years

PURPOSE: To evaluate the independent factors associated with the success of a trial of vaginal birth (TVB) in women with type 1 diabetes. Despite all therapeutic efforts and technological innovations, rates of caesarean sections (CS) in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes remain unchanged above 60%. Our aim was to point out influencing factors to improve the quality of antepartum counseling. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 195 pregnancies with type 1 diabetes treated between 2000 and 2019. After exclusions, 118 women with near-term singleton pregnancies intended vaginal birth (TVB). Group differences between CS and successful vaginal delivery were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was performed by including clinical and metabolic variables to determine the independent effects on a successful vaginal delivery. Subgroup analysis for nulliparous women. RESULTS: Of 118 women with TVB, 67 (56.8%) were delivered vaginally. History of previous vaginal delivery (OR 10.29; CI 2.39; 44.30), HbA1c changes during pregnancy (per % increase; OR 0.59; CI 0.36; 0.96) and gestational weight gain (per kg; OR 0.87; CI 0.80; 0.96) were independent predictors for a successful vaginal delivery. In nulliparous women, the duration of diabetes was independently and negatively associated with vaginal delivery. CONCLUSION: Provided data can help to improve antepartum counseling in type 1 diabetic patients. It seems that women with type 1 diabetes should avoid postponing pregnancy and childbirth. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00404-021-06255-9.