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COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination
The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020–June 2021. We further use the large discr...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Royal Society
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9169547/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35670221 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0900 |
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author | Yang, Wan Shaman, Jeffrey |
author_facet | Yang, Wan Shaman, Jeffrey |
author_sort | Yang, Wan |
collection | PubMed |
description | The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020–June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0–64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9–75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July–mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9169547 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-91695472022-06-08 COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination Yang, Wan Shaman, Jeffrey J R Soc Interface Life Sciences–Mathematics interface The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020–June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0–64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9–75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July–mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence. The Royal Society 2022-06-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9169547/ /pubmed/35670221 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0900 Text en © 2022 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Life Sciences–Mathematics interface Yang, Wan Shaman, Jeffrey COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title | COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title_full | COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title_fullStr | COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title_short | COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination |
title_sort | covid-19 pandemic dynamics in india, the sars-cov-2 delta variant and implications for vaccination |
topic | Life Sciences–Mathematics interface |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9169547/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35670221 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0900 |
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