Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19

We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions,...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Basnarkov, Lasko, Tomovski, Igor, Sandev, Trifce, Kocarev, Ljupco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9170541/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35694643
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112286
Descripción
Sumario:We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, Spain and the UK, in the spring, 2020.

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