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Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections

Targeting surveillance resources toward individuals at high risk of early infection can accelerate the detection of emerging outbreaks. However, it is unclear which individuals are at high risk without detailed data on interpersonal and physical contacts. We propose a data-driven COVID-19 surveillan...

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Autores principales: Du, Zhanwei, Bai, Yuan, Wang, Lin, Herrera-Diestra, Jose L, Yuan, Zhilu, Guo, Renzhong, Cowling, Benjamin J, Meyers, Lauren A, Holme, Petter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9170911/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35693630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac038
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author Du, Zhanwei
Bai, Yuan
Wang, Lin
Herrera-Diestra, Jose L
Yuan, Zhilu
Guo, Renzhong
Cowling, Benjamin J
Meyers, Lauren A
Holme, Petter
author_facet Du, Zhanwei
Bai, Yuan
Wang, Lin
Herrera-Diestra, Jose L
Yuan, Zhilu
Guo, Renzhong
Cowling, Benjamin J
Meyers, Lauren A
Holme, Petter
author_sort Du, Zhanwei
collection PubMed
description Targeting surveillance resources toward individuals at high risk of early infection can accelerate the detection of emerging outbreaks. However, it is unclear which individuals are at high risk without detailed data on interpersonal and physical contacts. We propose a data-driven COVID-19 surveillance strategy using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that identifies the most vulnerable individuals who acquired the earliest infections during historical influenza seasons. Our simulations for all three networks demonstrate that the EHR-based strategy performs as well as the most-connected strategy. Compared to the random acquaintance surveillance, our EHR-based strategy detects the early warning signal and peak timing much earlier. On average, the EHR-based strategy has 9.8 days of early warning and 13.5 days of peak timings, respectively, before the whole population. For the urban network, the expected values of our method are better than the random acquaintance strategy (24% for early warning and 14% in-advance for peak time). For a scale-free network, the average performance of the EHR-based method is 75% of the early warning and 109% in-advance when compared with the random acquaintance strategy. If the contact structure is persistent enough, it will be reflected by their history of infection. Our proposed approach suggests that seasonal influenza infection records could be used to monitor new outbreaks of emerging epidemics, including COVID-19. This is a method that exploits the effect of contact structure without considering it explicitly.
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spelling pubmed-91709112022-06-08 Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections Du, Zhanwei Bai, Yuan Wang, Lin Herrera-Diestra, Jose L Yuan, Zhilu Guo, Renzhong Cowling, Benjamin J Meyers, Lauren A Holme, Petter PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Targeting surveillance resources toward individuals at high risk of early infection can accelerate the detection of emerging outbreaks. However, it is unclear which individuals are at high risk without detailed data on interpersonal and physical contacts. We propose a data-driven COVID-19 surveillance strategy using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that identifies the most vulnerable individuals who acquired the earliest infections during historical influenza seasons. Our simulations for all three networks demonstrate that the EHR-based strategy performs as well as the most-connected strategy. Compared to the random acquaintance surveillance, our EHR-based strategy detects the early warning signal and peak timing much earlier. On average, the EHR-based strategy has 9.8 days of early warning and 13.5 days of peak timings, respectively, before the whole population. For the urban network, the expected values of our method are better than the random acquaintance strategy (24% for early warning and 14% in-advance for peak time). For a scale-free network, the average performance of the EHR-based method is 75% of the early warning and 109% in-advance when compared with the random acquaintance strategy. If the contact structure is persistent enough, it will be reflected by their history of infection. Our proposed approach suggests that seasonal influenza infection records could be used to monitor new outbreaks of emerging epidemics, including COVID-19. This is a method that exploits the effect of contact structure without considering it explicitly. Oxford University Press 2022-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9170911/ /pubmed/35693630 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac038 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
Du, Zhanwei
Bai, Yuan
Wang, Lin
Herrera-Diestra, Jose L
Yuan, Zhilu
Guo, Renzhong
Cowling, Benjamin J
Meyers, Lauren A
Holme, Petter
Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title_full Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title_fullStr Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title_full_unstemmed Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title_short Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
title_sort optimizing covid-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections
topic Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9170911/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35693630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac038
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