A Validated Model for Individualized Prediction of Live Birth in Patients With Adenomyosis Undergoing Frozen–Thawed Embryo Transfer

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a predictive tool for live birth in women with adenomyosis undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment. METHODS: A total of 424 patients with adenomyosis who underwent frozen–thawed embryo transfer (FET) from January 2013 to December 2019 at a public university hospital were included. The patients were randomly divided into training (n = 265) and validation (n = 159) samples for the building and testing of the nomogram, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR) was developed on the basis of clinical covariates assessed for their association with live birth. RESULTS: In total, 183 (43.16%) patients became pregnant, and 114 (26.88%) had a live birth. The MLR showed that the probability of live birth was significantly correlated with age [odds ratio (OR), 3.465; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.215–9.885, P = 0.020], uterine volume (OR, 8.141; 95% CI, 2.170–10.542; P = 0.002), blastocyst transfer (OR, 3.231; 95% CI, 1.065–8.819, P = 0.023), twin pregnancy (OR, 0.328; 95% CI, 0.104–0.344, P = 0.005), and protocol in FET (P < 0.001). The statistical nomogram was built based on age, uterine volume, twin pregnancy, stage of the transferred embryo, and protocol of FET, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.741–0.910) for the training cohort. The AUC for the validation cohort was 0.737 (95% CI: 0.661–0.813), presenting a well-pleasing goodness-of-fit and stability in this model. CONCLUSIONS: This visual and easily applied nomogram built on the risk factors of live birth in patients with adenomyosis provides useful and precise information for physicians on individualized decision-making during the IVF/ICSI procedure.