Cost–consequence analysis of COPD treatment according to NICE and GOLD recommendations compared with current clinical practice in the UK

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to model the clinical and economic impact of adapting current clinical practice in the management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to treatment according to national and international guideline recommendations. DESIGN: Treatment mapping was undertaken to hypothetically redistribute patients from current clinical practice, representing actual prescribing patterns in the UK, to an alternative recommendation-based treatment scenario, representing prescribing in accordance with either National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [NG115] or Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2020 strategy. SETTING: Primary care practices in the UK (1-year time horizon). PARTICIPANTS: Adults with COPD undergoing long-acting inhaler maintenance therapy in the UK (N=1 067,531). INTERVENTIONS: Inhaler maintenance therapy. OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs and clinical outcomes (type of treatment, rates of moderate and/or severe exacerbations, and mild-to-moderate and/or severe pneumonia events) were modelled for the two alternative pathways. RESULTS: Compared with current clinical practice, treating patients according to NICE guidance resulted in an estimated annual reduction in expenditure of £46.9 million, and an estimated annual reduction in expenditure of over £43.7 million when patients were treated according to GOLD 2020 strategy. Total cost savings of up to 8% annually could be achieved by treatment of patients according to either of these recommendations. Cost savings arose from a reduction in the rates of pneumonia, with an associated decrease in costs associated with antibiotic use and hospitalisation. Savings were achieved overall despite a small increase in the rate of exacerbations due to the redistribution of certain patients currently undergoing triple inhaled therapy to therapies not containing inhaled corticosteroids. CONCLUSION: Redistribution of patients with COPD from current clinical practice to treatment according to published recommendations would provide substantial cost savings over the first year.