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Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050

To meet the 1.5 °C target, methane (CH(4)) from ruminants must be reduced by 11 to 30% by 2030 and 24 to 47% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. A meta-analysis identified strategies to decrease product-based (PB; CH(4) per unit meat or milk) and absolute (ABS) enteric CH(4) emissions while maintaining...

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Autores principales: Arndt, Claudia, Hristov, Alexander N., Price, William J., McClelland, Shelby C., Pelaez, Amalia M., Cueva, Sergio F., Oh, Joonpyo, Dijkstra, Jan, Bannink, André, Bayat, Ali R., Crompton, Les A., Eugène, Maguy A., Enahoro, Dolapo, Kebreab, Ermias, Kreuzer, Michael, McGee, Mark, Martin, Cécile, Newbold, Charles J., Reynolds, Christopher K., Schwarm, Angela, Shingfield, Kevin J., Veneman, Jolien B., Yáñez-Ruiz, David R., Yu, Zhongtang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9171756/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35537050
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111294119
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author Arndt, Claudia
Hristov, Alexander N.
Price, William J.
McClelland, Shelby C.
Pelaez, Amalia M.
Cueva, Sergio F.
Oh, Joonpyo
Dijkstra, Jan
Bannink, André
Bayat, Ali R.
Crompton, Les A.
Eugène, Maguy A.
Enahoro, Dolapo
Kebreab, Ermias
Kreuzer, Michael
McGee, Mark
Martin, Cécile
Newbold, Charles J.
Reynolds, Christopher K.
Schwarm, Angela
Shingfield, Kevin J.
Veneman, Jolien B.
Yáñez-Ruiz, David R.
Yu, Zhongtang
author_facet Arndt, Claudia
Hristov, Alexander N.
Price, William J.
McClelland, Shelby C.
Pelaez, Amalia M.
Cueva, Sergio F.
Oh, Joonpyo
Dijkstra, Jan
Bannink, André
Bayat, Ali R.
Crompton, Les A.
Eugène, Maguy A.
Enahoro, Dolapo
Kebreab, Ermias
Kreuzer, Michael
McGee, Mark
Martin, Cécile
Newbold, Charles J.
Reynolds, Christopher K.
Schwarm, Angela
Shingfield, Kevin J.
Veneman, Jolien B.
Yáñez-Ruiz, David R.
Yu, Zhongtang
author_sort Arndt, Claudia
collection PubMed
description To meet the 1.5 °C target, methane (CH(4)) from ruminants must be reduced by 11 to 30% by 2030 and 24 to 47% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. A meta-analysis identified strategies to decrease product-based (PB; CH(4) per unit meat or milk) and absolute (ABS) enteric CH(4) emissions while maintaining or increasing animal productivity (AP; weight gain or milk yield). Next, the potential of different adoption rates of one PB or one ABS strategy to contribute to the 1.5 °C target was estimated. The database included findings from 430 peer-reviewed studies, which reported 98 mitigation strategies that can be classified into three categories: animal and feed management, diet formulation, and rumen manipulation. A random-effects meta-analysis weighted by inverse variance was carried out. Three PB strategies—namely, increasing feeding level, decreasing grass maturity, and decreasing dietary forage-to-concentrate ratio—decreased CH(4) per unit meat or milk by on average 12% and increased AP by a median of 17%. Five ABS strategies—namely CH(4) inhibitors, tanniferous forages, electron sinks, oils and fats, and oilseeds—decreased daily methane by on average 21%. Globally, only 100% adoption of the most effective PB and ABS strategies can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in CH(4) due to increasing milk and meat demand. Notably, by 2030 and 2050, low- and middle-income countries may not meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target for this same reason, whereas high-income countries could meet their contributions due to only a minor projected increase in enteric CH(4) emissions.
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spelling pubmed-91717562022-06-08 Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050 Arndt, Claudia Hristov, Alexander N. Price, William J. McClelland, Shelby C. Pelaez, Amalia M. Cueva, Sergio F. Oh, Joonpyo Dijkstra, Jan Bannink, André Bayat, Ali R. Crompton, Les A. Eugène, Maguy A. Enahoro, Dolapo Kebreab, Ermias Kreuzer, Michael McGee, Mark Martin, Cécile Newbold, Charles J. Reynolds, Christopher K. Schwarm, Angela Shingfield, Kevin J. Veneman, Jolien B. Yáñez-Ruiz, David R. Yu, Zhongtang Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Biological Sciences To meet the 1.5 °C target, methane (CH(4)) from ruminants must be reduced by 11 to 30% by 2030 and 24 to 47% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. A meta-analysis identified strategies to decrease product-based (PB; CH(4) per unit meat or milk) and absolute (ABS) enteric CH(4) emissions while maintaining or increasing animal productivity (AP; weight gain or milk yield). Next, the potential of different adoption rates of one PB or one ABS strategy to contribute to the 1.5 °C target was estimated. The database included findings from 430 peer-reviewed studies, which reported 98 mitigation strategies that can be classified into three categories: animal and feed management, diet formulation, and rumen manipulation. A random-effects meta-analysis weighted by inverse variance was carried out. Three PB strategies—namely, increasing feeding level, decreasing grass maturity, and decreasing dietary forage-to-concentrate ratio—decreased CH(4) per unit meat or milk by on average 12% and increased AP by a median of 17%. Five ABS strategies—namely CH(4) inhibitors, tanniferous forages, electron sinks, oils and fats, and oilseeds—decreased daily methane by on average 21%. Globally, only 100% adoption of the most effective PB and ABS strategies can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in CH(4) due to increasing milk and meat demand. Notably, by 2030 and 2050, low- and middle-income countries may not meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target for this same reason, whereas high-income countries could meet their contributions due to only a minor projected increase in enteric CH(4) emissions. National Academy of Sciences 2022-05-10 2022-05-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9171756/ /pubmed/35537050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111294119 Text en Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Biological Sciences
Arndt, Claudia
Hristov, Alexander N.
Price, William J.
McClelland, Shelby C.
Pelaez, Amalia M.
Cueva, Sergio F.
Oh, Joonpyo
Dijkstra, Jan
Bannink, André
Bayat, Ali R.
Crompton, Les A.
Eugène, Maguy A.
Enahoro, Dolapo
Kebreab, Ermias
Kreuzer, Michael
McGee, Mark
Martin, Cécile
Newbold, Charles J.
Reynolds, Christopher K.
Schwarm, Angela
Shingfield, Kevin J.
Veneman, Jolien B.
Yáñez-Ruiz, David R.
Yu, Zhongtang
Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title_full Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title_fullStr Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title_full_unstemmed Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title_short Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050
title_sort full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °c target by 2030 but not 2050
topic Biological Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9171756/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35537050
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111294119
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