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Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy

We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha varia...

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Autores principales: Gozzi, Nicolò, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Perra, Nicola, Vespignani, Alessandro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173644/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35613248
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010146
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author Gozzi, Nicolò
Chinazzi, Matteo
Davis, Jessica T.
Mu, Kunpeng
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Ajelli, Marco
Perra, Nicola
Vespignani, Alessandro
author_facet Gozzi, Nicolò
Chinazzi, Matteo
Davis, Jessica T.
Mu, Kunpeng
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Ajelli, Marco
Perra, Nicola
Vespignani, Alessandro
author_sort Gozzi, Nicolò
collection PubMed
description We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha variant. We consider six sub-national regions and study the effect of vaccines in terms of number of averted deaths, infections, and reduction in the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with respect to counterfactual scenarios with the actual non-pharmaceuticals interventions but no vaccine administration. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness in counterfactual scenarios with different vaccines allocation strategies and vaccination rates. Our results show that, as of 2021/07/05, vaccines averted 29, 350 (IQR: [16, 454–42, 826]) deaths and 4, 256, 332 (IQR: [1, 675, 564–6, 980, 070]) infections and a new pandemic wave in the country. During the same period, they achieved a −22.2% (IQR: [−31.4%; −13.9%]) IFR reduction. We show that a campaign that would have strictly prioritized age groups at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, besides frontline workers and the fragile population, would have implied additional benefits both in terms of avoided fatalities and reduction in the IFR. Strategies targeting the most active age groups would have prevented a higher number of infections but would have been associated with more deaths. Finally, we study the effects of different vaccination intake scenarios by rescaling the number of available doses in the time period under study to those administered in other countries of reference. The modeling framework can be applied to other countries to provide a mechanistic characterization of vaccination campaigns worldwide.
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spelling pubmed-91736442022-06-08 Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy Gozzi, Nicolò Chinazzi, Matteo Davis, Jessica T. Mu, Kunpeng Pastore y Piontti, Ana Ajelli, Marco Perra, Nicola Vespignani, Alessandro PLoS Comput Biol Research Article We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha variant. We consider six sub-national regions and study the effect of vaccines in terms of number of averted deaths, infections, and reduction in the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with respect to counterfactual scenarios with the actual non-pharmaceuticals interventions but no vaccine administration. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness in counterfactual scenarios with different vaccines allocation strategies and vaccination rates. Our results show that, as of 2021/07/05, vaccines averted 29, 350 (IQR: [16, 454–42, 826]) deaths and 4, 256, 332 (IQR: [1, 675, 564–6, 980, 070]) infections and a new pandemic wave in the country. During the same period, they achieved a −22.2% (IQR: [−31.4%; −13.9%]) IFR reduction. We show that a campaign that would have strictly prioritized age groups at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, besides frontline workers and the fragile population, would have implied additional benefits both in terms of avoided fatalities and reduction in the IFR. Strategies targeting the most active age groups would have prevented a higher number of infections but would have been associated with more deaths. Finally, we study the effects of different vaccination intake scenarios by rescaling the number of available doses in the time period under study to those administered in other countries of reference. The modeling framework can be applied to other countries to provide a mechanistic characterization of vaccination campaigns worldwide. Public Library of Science 2022-05-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9173644/ /pubmed/35613248 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010146 Text en © 2022 Gozzi et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Gozzi, Nicolò
Chinazzi, Matteo
Davis, Jessica T.
Mu, Kunpeng
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Ajelli, Marco
Perra, Nicola
Vespignani, Alessandro
Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title_full Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title_fullStr Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title_full_unstemmed Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title_short Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
title_sort anatomy of the first six months of covid-19 vaccination campaign in italy
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173644/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35613248
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010146
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