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Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States

Drawing on 99.9 million court records, we construct national estimates of the annual prevalence of eviction filings and households threatened with eviction in the United States. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reconcile data from multiple sources to create comprehensive estimates permitting...

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Autores principales: Gromis, Ashley, Fellows, Ian, Hendrickson, James R., Edmonds, Lavar, Leung, Lillian, Porton, Adam, Desmond, Matthew
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173767/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35576463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116169119
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author Gromis, Ashley
Fellows, Ian
Hendrickson, James R.
Edmonds, Lavar
Leung, Lillian
Porton, Adam
Desmond, Matthew
author_facet Gromis, Ashley
Fellows, Ian
Hendrickson, James R.
Edmonds, Lavar
Leung, Lillian
Porton, Adam
Desmond, Matthew
author_sort Gromis, Ashley
collection PubMed
description Drawing on 99.9 million court records, we construct national estimates of the annual prevalence of eviction filings and households threatened with eviction in the United States. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reconcile data from multiple sources to create comprehensive estimates permitting comparisons of eviction filing risk within and between states. This method indicates that relying solely on court-issued data undercounts eviction filings by approximately 1 million cases a year due to omission of counties for which these data cannot be obtained. In an average year between 2000 and 2018, landlords filed more than 3.6 million eviction cases, resulting in almost 7% of renting households facing an eviction lawsuit. During this time, the number of eviction filings nationally increased by 21.5%; however, an expanding renter population has outpaced the growth in filings, resulting in declining filing rates in recent years. Nationwide data reveal stark disparities in eviction filing rates between states that are not explained by variation in sociodemographic composition. Rather, regression discontinuity models indicate a robust association between a simple housing policy—requiring landlords to provide notice to tenants prior to filing an eviction case for nonpayment of rent—and the county-level eviction filing rate, demonstrating that larger structural factors, including state-level landlord–tenant law, could play an important role in shaping risk of receiving an eviction filing. We make aggregated data publicly available to serve as a tool for researchers, policymakers, and members of the public to examine the prevalence, causes, and consequences of eviction lawsuits.
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spelling pubmed-91737672022-06-08 Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States Gromis, Ashley Fellows, Ian Hendrickson, James R. Edmonds, Lavar Leung, Lillian Porton, Adam Desmond, Matthew Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences Drawing on 99.9 million court records, we construct national estimates of the annual prevalence of eviction filings and households threatened with eviction in the United States. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reconcile data from multiple sources to create comprehensive estimates permitting comparisons of eviction filing risk within and between states. This method indicates that relying solely on court-issued data undercounts eviction filings by approximately 1 million cases a year due to omission of counties for which these data cannot be obtained. In an average year between 2000 and 2018, landlords filed more than 3.6 million eviction cases, resulting in almost 7% of renting households facing an eviction lawsuit. During this time, the number of eviction filings nationally increased by 21.5%; however, an expanding renter population has outpaced the growth in filings, resulting in declining filing rates in recent years. Nationwide data reveal stark disparities in eviction filing rates between states that are not explained by variation in sociodemographic composition. Rather, regression discontinuity models indicate a robust association between a simple housing policy—requiring landlords to provide notice to tenants prior to filing an eviction case for nonpayment of rent—and the county-level eviction filing rate, demonstrating that larger structural factors, including state-level landlord–tenant law, could play an important role in shaping risk of receiving an eviction filing. We make aggregated data publicly available to serve as a tool for researchers, policymakers, and members of the public to examine the prevalence, causes, and consequences of eviction lawsuits. National Academy of Sciences 2022-05-16 2022-05-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9173767/ /pubmed/35576463 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116169119 Text en Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Social Sciences
Gromis, Ashley
Fellows, Ian
Hendrickson, James R.
Edmonds, Lavar
Leung, Lillian
Porton, Adam
Desmond, Matthew
Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title_full Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title_fullStr Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title_full_unstemmed Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title_short Estimating eviction prevalence across the United States
title_sort estimating eviction prevalence across the united states
topic Social Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173767/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35576463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116169119
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