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Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data...

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Autores principales: O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin, STEUBEN, Krista, STAFFORD, Kristen A., ALIOGO, Rukevwe, ALAGI, Matthias, JOHANNS, Casey K., IBRAHIM, Jahun, SHIRAISHI, Ray, EHOCHE, Akipu, GREBY, Stacie, DIRLIKOV, Emilio, IBRAHIM, Dalhatu, BRONSON, Megan, ALIYU, Gambo, ALIYU, Sani, DWYER-LINDGREN, Laura, SWAMINATHAN, Mahesh, DUBER, Herbert C., CHARURAT, Man
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9176772/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35675346
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268892
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author O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin
STEUBEN, Krista
STAFFORD, Kristen A.
ALIOGO, Rukevwe
ALAGI, Matthias
JOHANNS, Casey K.
IBRAHIM, Jahun
SHIRAISHI, Ray
EHOCHE, Akipu
GREBY, Stacie
DIRLIKOV, Emilio
IBRAHIM, Dalhatu
BRONSON, Megan
ALIYU, Gambo
ALIYU, Sani
DWYER-LINDGREN, Laura
SWAMINATHAN, Mahesh
DUBER, Herbert C.
CHARURAT, Man
author_facet O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin
STEUBEN, Krista
STAFFORD, Kristen A.
ALIOGO, Rukevwe
ALAGI, Matthias
JOHANNS, Casey K.
IBRAHIM, Jahun
SHIRAISHI, Ray
EHOCHE, Akipu
GREBY, Stacie
DIRLIKOV, Emilio
IBRAHIM, Dalhatu
BRONSON, Megan
ALIYU, Gambo
ALIYU, Sani
DWYER-LINDGREN, Laura
SWAMINATHAN, Mahesh
DUBER, Herbert C.
CHARURAT, Man
author_sort O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July–December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15–64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%–0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%–4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%–0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%–12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%–76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%–81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5–38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS—regardless of level of effective treatment coverage—indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.
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spelling pubmed-91767722022-06-09 Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin STEUBEN, Krista STAFFORD, Kristen A. ALIOGO, Rukevwe ALAGI, Matthias JOHANNS, Casey K. IBRAHIM, Jahun SHIRAISHI, Ray EHOCHE, Akipu GREBY, Stacie DIRLIKOV, Emilio IBRAHIM, Dalhatu BRONSON, Megan ALIYU, Gambo ALIYU, Sani DWYER-LINDGREN, Laura SWAMINATHAN, Mahesh DUBER, Herbert C. CHARURAT, Man PLoS One Research Article OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July–December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15–64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%–0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%–4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%–0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%–12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%–76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%–81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5–38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS—regardless of level of effective treatment coverage—indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution. Public Library of Science 2022-06-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9176772/ /pubmed/35675346 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268892 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
O’BRIEN-CARELLI, Caitlin
STEUBEN, Krista
STAFFORD, Kristen A.
ALIOGO, Rukevwe
ALAGI, Matthias
JOHANNS, Casey K.
IBRAHIM, Jahun
SHIRAISHI, Ray
EHOCHE, Akipu
GREBY, Stacie
DIRLIKOV, Emilio
IBRAHIM, Dalhatu
BRONSON, Megan
ALIYU, Gambo
ALIYU, Sani
DWYER-LINDGREN, Laura
SWAMINATHAN, Mahesh
DUBER, Herbert C.
CHARURAT, Man
Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title_full Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title_fullStr Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title_full_unstemmed Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title_short Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy
title_sort mapping hiv prevalence in nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted hiv intervention strategy
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9176772/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35675346
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268892
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